What is the expert prediction for Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies?

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Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Sunday, May 11, 2025)

Match Info

MLB

Date: 11 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Progressive Field (Cleveland, OH)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Australia	ESPN 2
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 2
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
France	beIN Sports MAX 6
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	MLB.TV


	Cleveland Guardians		Philadelphia Phillies

	1	2
			Watch
	2.5	1.55
	2.45	1.58	Watch
	2.44	1.63
	2.35	1.59	Watch
	2.5	1.59
	2.42	1.61	Watch
	2.45	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (2.4)	1.59 ↓ (1.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 7.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cleveland Guardians
39.4%

Philadelphia Phillies
60.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

59.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.1%

59.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cleveland Guardians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Philadelphia Phillies has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cleveland Guardians than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Philadelphia Phillies than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Cleveland will win (votes: 5 - 25%). Philadelphia will win (votes: 15 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Philadelphia: 56% – 94%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Cleveland (votes: 2 - 40%). Philadelphia (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1, OT - Philadelphia (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 8.5, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Cleveland (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Philadelphia (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:5

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Lineups

Batters
38. Kwan S.	5. Stott B.
10. Schneemann D.	7. Turner T.
11. Ramirez J.	3. Harper B.
41. Santana C.	12. Schwarber K.
9. Manzardo K.	8. Castellanos N.
23. Naylor B.	17. Kepler M.
13. Arias G.	10. Realmuto J.T.
22. Jones N.	28. Bohm A.
1. Martinez A.	23. Rojas J.
Pitchers
45. Ortiz L.	45. Wheeler Z.
Coaches
. Vogt S.	. Thomson R.

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cleveland won 3.

In recent matches, Cleveland has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Philadelphia is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Cleveland may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Philadelphia has had a series of away games.

Philadelphia might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Cleveland: Bieber S. (Elbow Injury) Cecconi S. (Abdominal strain) Fry D. (Elbow Injury) Hentges S. (Shoulder Injury) Means J. (Forearm injury) Sabrowski E. (Elbow Injury) Sewald P. (Shoulder Injury) Stephan T. (Elbow Injury) Thomas L. (Wrist Injury)

There will not play in Philadelphia: Ruiz J. (Neck Injury)

There are questionable in Cleveland: Hernandez A. (Injury) Valera G. (Knee Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Cleveland won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 85:66. (average 4.7:3.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Cleveland won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 59:34. (average 5.9:3.4).

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Last Results with these Odds

Cleveland Guardians - the odds 2.4 are the expected chance of winning is 40.13%, but this team recently wins 46% of matches with these odds.

Philadelphia Phillies - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 59.87%, but this team recently wins 68% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cleveland Guardians
MLB
10.05.25	Cleveland Guardians - Philadelphia Phillies	1:7 ✺
09.05.25	Cleveland Guardians - Philadelphia Phillies	6:0 ✺
07.05.25	Washington Nationals - Cleveland Guardians	6:8 ✺
06.05.25	Washington Nationals - Cleveland Guardians	1:9 ✺
06.05.25	Washington Nationals - Cleveland Guardians	10:9 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWWWL
- Philadelphia Phillies
MLB
10.05.25	Cleveland Guardians - Philadelphia Phillies	1:7 ✺
09.05.25	Cleveland Guardians - Philadelphia Phillies	6:0 ✺
08.05.25	Tampa Bay Rays - Philadelphia Phillies	6:7 ✺
07.05.25	Tampa Bay Rays - Philadelphia Phillies	0:7 ✺
06.05.25	Tampa Bay Rays - Philadelphia Phillies	4:8 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

MLB
10.05.25	Cleveland Guardians - Philadelphia Phillies	1:7
09.05.25	Cleveland Guardians - Philadelphia Phillies	6:0
28.07.24	Philadelphia Phillies - Cleveland Guardians	3:4
27.07.24	Philadelphia Phillies - Cleveland Guardians	8:0
26.07.24	Philadelphia Phillies - Cleveland Guardians	1:3
23.07.23	Cleveland Guardians - Philadelphia Phillies	5:8
22.07.23	Cleveland Guardians - Philadelphia Phillies	1:0

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