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Shimizu S-Pulse vs Tokyo Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Wednesday, September 02, 2026)

Match Info

J1 League - Round 5

Date: 2 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: IAI Stadium Nihondaira (Shizuoka)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Shimizu S-Pulse		Tokyo

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.6	1.66	Watch
	5.00	3.70	1.68
	4.85	3.6	1.65	Watch
	5.2	4.08	1.7
	4.98	3.91	1.68	Watch
	4.95	4	1.67
	4.9	3.93	1.69	Watch
	5	3.75	1.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.02 ↑ (2.95)	3.82 ↑ (3.2)	1.68 ↓ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shimizu S-Pulse
18.9%

Draw
24.8%

Tokyo
56.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.2%

28.8%

40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.4%

28%

41.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shimizu S-Pulse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Shimizu S-Pulse's form might have worsened.

Tokyo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tokyo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shimizu S-Pulse than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Shimizu S-Pulse, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tokyo than the current prediction. (-15.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tokyo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	0%	90.9%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Shimizu will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Tokyo will win (votes: 10 - 90.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tokyo: 73.9% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Umeda T. (G) 24. Sugai H. 3. Takahashi Y. 51. Sumiyoshi J. (C) 28. Yoshida Y. 47. Shimamoto Y. 17. Yumiba M. 13. Germain R. 21. Matsuzaki K. 19. Kinoshita K. 38. Tsuji Y.	81. Kim Seung-Gyu (C) 22. Ishihara H. 24. Scholz A. 3. Morishige M. 42. Hashimoto K. 7. Anzai S. 27. Tokiwa K. 8. Ko T. 19. Homma S. 26. Nagakura M. 9. Marcelo Ryan
Substitutes
7. Capixaba 23. Chiba K. 50. Fujii T. 4. Hasukawa S. 81. Kozuka K. 97. Ohata R. 9. Oh Se-Hun 1. Oki Y. (G) 70. Takagi S.	18. Hashimoto K. 4. Inamura H. 2. Muroya S. 5. Nagatomo Y. 39. Nakagawa T. 10. Sato K. 1. Tanaka H. (G) 33. Tawaratsumida K. 71. Yamada F.
Coaches
Yoshida T.	Matsuhashi R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Tsuji Y. ↓, Fujii T. ↑,
50', 0 - 1, Anzai S. ⚽, Nagakura M. (A),
53', 1 - 1, Kinoshita K. ⚽,
64', Germain R. ↓, Oh Se-Hun ↑,
77', Marcelo Ryan ↓, Sato K. ↑,
77', Kinoshita K. ↓, Kozuka K. ↑,
77', Homma S. ↓, Tawaratsumida K. ↑,
86', Ko T. ↓, Hashimoto K. ↑,
89', Shimamoto Y. ↓, Chiba K. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shimizu won 2.

Shimizu is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Tokyo is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Shimizu may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Tokyo will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Shimizu: Won Du-Jae (Shoulder Injury)

There will not play in Tokyo: Otani D. C. (Foot Injury) Vallys N. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Shimizu won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 19:33. (average 1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Shimizu won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 9:17. (average 0.8:1.5).

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Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

FC Tokyo: 7.21% Shimizu S-Pulse: 0.58%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	FC Tokyo	4	2	1	1	8:7	1	7
16	Shimizu S-Pulse	4	1	0	3	1:3	-2	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shimizu S-Pulse
Japan J1 League
29.08.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - Kashiwa Reysol	0:1 ✺
22.08.26	Cerezo Osaka - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:0 ✺
15.08.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - Yokohama F. Marinos	0:1 ✺
08.08.26	Nagoya Grampus - Shimizu S-Pulse	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
18.07.26	Karlsruher - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LLLWT
- FC Tokyo
Japan J1 League
29.08.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Tokyo	0:3 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
26.08.26	Tokyo - Nagano Parceiro	6:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
21.08.26	Tokyo - JEF United Chiba	2:0 ✺
15.08.26	Vissel Kobe - Tokyo	2:2 ✺
08.08.26	Tokyo - Machida Zelvia	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
04.10.25	Shimizu S-Pulse - Tokyo	1:1
29.04.25	Tokyo - Shimizu S-Pulse	0:2
07.08.22	Tokyo - Shimizu S-Pulse	0:2
25.05.22	Shimizu S-Pulse - Tokyo	0:3
03.11.21	Tokyo - Shimizu S-Pulse	4:0
26.05.21	Shimizu S-Pulse - Tokyo	3:0
14.10.20	Tokyo - Shimizu S-Pulse	3:1

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