Match Info

NFL - Round 4

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	DAZN
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	DAZN Brasil, SporTV 2
Bulgaria	DAZN
Canada	DAZN Canada
Cyprus	DAZN
Czech-republic	DAZN
Denmark	DAZN
Finland	DAZN
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	DAZN
Hungary	DAZN
Italy	DAZN Italia
Latvia	DAZN
Lithuania	DAZN
North-macedonia	DAZN
Norway	DAZN
Poland	DAZN
Romania	DAZN
Russia	DAZN
Serbia	DAZN
Slovenia	DAZN
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	DAZN
Ukraine	DAZN
United-kingdom	DAZN
Usa	ESPN Deportes
World	NFL Game Pass


	Buffalo Bills		New England Patriots

	1	2
	1.29	3.7	Watch
	1.3	3.51	Watch
	1.32	3.63
	1.3	3.51	Watch
	1.29	3.55
	1.29	3.56
	1.32	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 ↓ (1.38)	3.55 ↑ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 49.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Buffalo Bills
73.2%

New England Patriots
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.2%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Buffalo Bills has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

New England Patriots has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Buffalo Bills than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for New England Patriots than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Buffalo Bills - New England Patriots Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Buffalo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -5.5, OT - Buffalo (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, OT - Buffalo (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Buffalo Bills will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Buffalo (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 29:22

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (0 - 7)
07:59, Doubs R. (Touchdown),
07:59, Borregales A. (Extra Point),
2nd Quarter (17 - 7)
00:45, Cook J. (Touchdown),
00:45, Bass T. (Extra Point),
09:22, Stevenson R. (Touchdown),
09:22, Borregales A. (Extra Point),
14:00, Allen J. (Touchdown),
14:00, Bass T. (Extra Point),
14:58, Bass T. (Field Goal),
3rd Quarter (0 - 7)
06:45, Doubs R. (Touchdown),
06:45, Borregales A. (Extra Point),
4th Quarter (9 - 8)
03:53, Bass T. (Field Goal),
10:33, Coleman K. (Touchdown),
10:33, (2-Point Conversion Failed),
13:10, Chism E. (Touchdown),
13:10, Stevenson R. (Two-Point Conversion),

Preview

This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 3rd and 11th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Buffalo won 3.

Buffalo arrives with excellent momentum after picking up several victories (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

New England has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Buffalo could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Buffalo carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Buffalo has recorded 10 wins, 0 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 447:442 (averaging 22.4:22.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Buffalo against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, with 231:245 goals (averaging 21:22.3 per game).

Outrights of NFL for now

Buffalo Bills: 10% New England Patriots: 3.17%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Buffalo Bills
NFL
27.09.26	Buffalo Bills - Los Angeles Chargers	24:16 ✺
17.09.26	Buffalo Bills - Detroit Lions	41:31 ✺
13.09.26	Houston Texans - Buffalo Bills	31:36 ✺
27.08.26	Buffalo Bills - Pittsburgh Steelers	28:27 ✺
22.08.26	Cleveland Browns - Buffalo Bills	7:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WWWWW
- New England Patriots
NFL
27.09.26	Jacksonville Jaguars - New England Patriots	35:6 ✺
20.09.26	New England Patriots - Pittsburgh Steelers	20:3 ✺
09.09.26	Seattle Seahawks - New England Patriots	13:10 ✺
27.08.26	Cleveland Browns - New England Patriots	37:13 ✺
22.08.26	New England Patriots - Philadelphia Eagles	24:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

NFL
14.12.25	New England Patriots - Buffalo Bills	31:35
05.10.25	Buffalo Bills - New England Patriots	20:23
05.01.25	New England Patriots - Buffalo Bills	23:16
22.12.24	Buffalo Bills - New England Patriots	24:21
31.12.23	Buffalo Bills - New England Patriots	27:21
22.10.23	New England Patriots - Buffalo Bills	29:25
08.01.23	Buffalo Bills - New England Patriots	35:23

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