Match Info

Liga Next Gen U23 - Round 7

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Estrela da Amadora U23		Moreirense U23

	1	X	2
	2.70	3.48	2.40
	2.66	3.73	2.35	Watch
	2.65	3.40	2.30
	2.73	3.57	2.37
	2.60	3.30	2.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↓ (3.16)	3.5 ↓ (3.74)	2.35 ↑ (2.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estrela da Amadora U23
34.5%

Draw
26.3%

Moreirense U23
39.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.4%

24.8%

45.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.2%

23.8%

47.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estrela da Amadora U23 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Estrela da Amadora U23's performance.

Moreirense U23 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Moreirense U23 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estrela da Amadora U23 than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Estrela da Amadora U23 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moreirense U23 than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Moreirense U23 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Estrela da Amadora U23 - Moreirense U23 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
11', 1 - 0, ⚽,
26', 2 - 0, ⚽,
29', 2 - 1, ⚽,
37', 2 - 2, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
83', 🟥,
90+2', 🟥,

Preview

A team fighting near the bottom hosts a mid-table side in a match full of urgency (ranked 18th in the Liga Next Gen U23 (Losers stage: ) and 10th in the Liga Next Gen U23 (Losers stage: )).

Recent results have been tough for Estrela U23 (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Performances by Moreirense U23 have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Moreirense U23 may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Moreirense U23	8	2	5	1	17:9	8	11
19	Estrela U23	8	1	2	5	7:15	-8	5

Last Results with these Odds

Estrela da Amadora U23 - the odds 3.16 are the expected chance of winning is 29.4%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estrela da Amadora U23
Portuguese Liga Next Gen U23
08.09.26	Estrela da Amadora U23 - Leiria U23	2:0 ✺
01.09.26	Estrela da Amadora U23 - Sporting Lisbon U23	1:2 ✺
25.08.26	Maritimo U23 - Estrela da Amadora U23	0:0 ✺
18.08.26	Estrela da Amadora U23 - Leixões U23	0:3 ✺
10.08.26	Académico de Viseu U23 - Estrela da Amadora U23	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLTLL
- Moreirense U23
Portuguese Liga Next Gen U23
14.09.26	Moreirense U23 - Braga U23	1:1 ✺
08.09.26	Académico de Viseu U23 - Moreirense U23	1:3 ✺
01.09.26	Moreirense U23 - Portimonense U23	0:0 ✺
25.08.26	Estoril U23 - Moreirense U23	2:1 ✺
19.08.26	Moreirense U23 - Famalicão U23	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 TWTLT

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