Match Info

Reserve League - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 5 May 2026, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	LPF Play


	Instituto 2		Gimnasia Mendoza 2

	1	X	2
	2.28	3	2.92	Watch
	2.32	3.06	3.14
	2.34	2.93	3.13	Watch
	2.25	2.75	3.1
	2.19	2.97	3.25
	1.75	3.35	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (1.75)	3.01 ↓ (3.35)	3.25 ↓ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Instituto 2
41.7%

Draw
30.3%

Gimnasia Mendoza 2
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.9%

26.6%

22.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

24.8%

21%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Instituto 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Instituto 2's form might have worsened.

Gimnasia Mendoza 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gimnasia Mendoza 2's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Instituto 2 than the current prediction. (+12.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Instituto 2, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gimnasia Mendoza 2 than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gimnasia Mendoza 2, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Instituto 2 - Gimnasia Mendoza 2 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 6 and 15).

In recent matches, Instituto 2 has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Gimnasia Mendoza 2 has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Instituto 2 will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Instituto 2
Argentinian Reserve League
30.04.26	Racing Club 2 - Instituto 2	0:0 ✺
23.04.26	Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 2 - Instituto 2	1:1 ✺
16.04.26	Instituto 2 - Barracas Central 2	2:2 ✺
09.04.26	Sarmiento de Junín 2 - Instituto 2	1:1 ✺
03.04.26	Instituto 2 - Talleres de Córdoba 2	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TTTTT
- Gimnasia Mendoza 2
Argentinian Reserve League
29.04.26	Gimnasia Mendoza 2 - Barracas Central 2	2:0 ✺
23.04.26	Gimnasia Mendoza 2 - Independiente Rivadavia 2	0:1 ✺
15.04.26	Talleres de Córdoba 2 - Gimnasia Mendoza 2	0:0 ✺
08.04.26	Gimnasia Mendoza 2 - Banfield 2	0:2 ✺
02.04.26	Rosario Central 2 - Gimnasia Mendoza 2	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLTLL

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