Match Info

AFC Asian Cup U23 - Round 3

Date: 13 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: King Abdullah Sports City (Jeddah)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
China	iQIYI, Migu
Germany	Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+
Hong-kong	HOY TV, M Plus Live
Japan	DAZN Japan
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Arena Bola
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto
Pakistan	Tapmad
South-korea	Coupang Play
Vietnam	FPT Play, TV 360
International	Onefootball


	Japan U23		Qatar U23

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.17	5.9	14.5
	1.29	5.43	9.48	Watch
	1.29	4.6	8.5
	1.2	5.85	14.7	Watch
	1.3	4.75	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.25 ↓ (1.52)	5.31 ↑ (3.57)	10.94 ↑ (5.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Japan U23
74.1%

Draw
17.5%

Qatar U23
8.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

59.4%

25.3%

15.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Japan U23 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Japan U23's performance.

Qatar U23 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Qatar U23 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	14.3%	0%

Japan U23 - Qatar U23 Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Qatar U23 (3.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Japan U23 will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Qatar U23 (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kobayashi M. (G) FC Tokyo 16. Koizumi K. 2. Umeki R. (C) Imabari 4. Nagano S. Gainare Tottori 3. Tsuchiya K. Kawasaki Frontale 6. Ogura K. 18. Kume H. 17. Shimamoto Y. Shimizu S-Pulse 19. Michiwaki Y. SK Beveren 14. Kawai T. Iwata 20. Furuya S. Tokyo International University	1. Hassan A. (G) Al-Duhail 2. Mugib A. 4. Al Hussain A. (C) Al Arabi (Qatar) 5. Al Ghareeb H. Al Rayyan 3. Fadlalla S. Al-Gharafa 20. Abweny A. Al-Shahaniya 7. Shanan M. 11. Gouda M. Al Arabi (Qatar) 6. Mohammed A. Al-Shahaniya 14. Reyed A. Al Ahli 23. Surag M. Al Rayyan
Substitutes
23. Araki R. (G) Gamba Osaka 12. Hamasaki T. (G) 5. Ichihara R. Omiya Ardija 13. Ishibashi S. Shonan Bellmare 7. Ishiwatari N. Iwaki 15. Mori S. Nagoya Grampus 9. Nwadike Uchebrian S. Toin University 22. Okabe H. Toyo University 8. Ozeki Y. Kawasaki Frontale 10. Sato R. Okayama 21. Sekitomi K. Yokohama F. Marinos 11. Yokoyama Y. Cerezo Osaka	9. Al Abdulla R. Al-Duhail 16. Al Sharshani J. Al Ahli 17. El Sayed M. Al Rayyan 15. Erfan N. Al Wakra 19. Jamshid T. Al-Duhail 22. Mohammed A. (G) Shamal 21. Osman A. (G) CD Calahorra 8. Said F. Umm-Salal 12. Sherif M. Al Arabi (Qatar) 18. Taha M. CD Calahorra

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', Mugib A. 🟨,
6', Abweny A. 🟨,
24', Al Ghareeb H. 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, Furuya S. ⚽, Koizumi K. (A),
40', Shanan M. 🟨,
45+1', Ogura K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Fadlalla S. ↓, Sherif M. ↑,
46', Ogura K. ↓, Okabe H. ↑,
46', Umeki R. ↓, Sekitomi K. ↑,
62', Mugib A. ↓, Erfan N. ↑,
62', Abweny A. ↓, Al Sharshani J. ↑,
67', Furuya S. ↓, Yokoyama Y. ↑,
74', Kume H. ↓, Sato R. ↑,
78', Mohammed A. ↓, Said F. ↑,
78', Surag M. ↓, Al Abdulla R. ↑,
80', 2 - 0, Sato R. ⚽,
85', Michiwaki Y. ↓, Nwadike Uchebrian S. ↑,

Preview

Japan U23 is Qualified for AFC Asian Cup U23 (Play Offs )

Qatar U23 is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Japan U23 is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Japan U23 won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:4. (average 2.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Japan U23
AFC Asian Cup U23
10.01.26	United Arab Emirates U23 - Japan U23	0:3 ✺
07.01.26	Japan U23 - Syria U23	5:0 ✺
Friendly
01.01.26	Jordan U23 - Japan U23	1:1 ✺
AFC Asian Cup U23
09.09.25	Japan U23 - Kuwait U23	6:1 ✺
06.09.25	Myanmar U23 - Japan U23	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWTWW
- Qatar U23
AFC Asian Cup U23
10.01.26	Syria U23 - Qatar U23	1:0 ✺
07.01.26	Qatar U23 - United Arab Emirates U23	0:2 ✺
Friendly
30.12.25	Qatar U23 - Uzbekistan U23	2:1 ✺
Arabian Gulf Cup U23
14.12.25	Iraq U23 - Qatar U23	2:1 penalties ✺
11.12.25	Qatar U23 - Saudi Arabia U23	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

AFC Asian Cup U23
25.04.24	Qatar U23 - Japan U23	2:4 ET
Asian Games Football
20.09.23	Japan U23 - Qatar U23	3:1
Friendly
26.03.22	Qatar U23 - Japan U23	0:2
AFC Asian Cup U23
15.01.20	Qatar U23 - Japan U23	1:1

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