Match Info

Reserve League - Apertura - Round 5

Date: 17 March 2026, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	HBO Max, TNT Sports, TNT Sports Premium


	Sarmiento de Junín 2		Gimnasia La Plata 2

	1	X	2
	2.58	2.98	2.58	Watch
	2.51	3.1	2.55
	2.66	3.06	2.6	Watch
	2.5	2.88	2.5
	2.58	2.97	2.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↓ (3.18)	3 ↓ (3.12)	2.56 ↑ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarmiento de Junín 2
35%

Draw
29.9%

Gimnasia La Plata 2
35.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.9%

29.5%

41.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.8%

28.4%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarmiento de Junín 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sarmiento de Junín 2's performance.

Gimnasia La Plata 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gimnasia La Plata 2 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarmiento de Junín 2 than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sarmiento de Junín 2 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gimnasia La Plata 2 than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gimnasia La Plata 2 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sarmiento de Junín 2 - Gimnasia La Plata 2 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
49', 1 - 0, ⚽,
64', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

Sarmiento 2 has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Gimnasia La Plata 2 is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Gimnasia La Plata 2 has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sarmiento 2 won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:9. (average 0.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Sarmiento 2 won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Gimnasia La Plata 2 - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 41.61%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarmiento de Junín 2
Argentinian Reserve League
02.03.26	Unión Santa Fe 2 - Sarmiento de Junín 2	1:0 ✺
18.02.26	Sarmiento de Junín 2 - Atlético Tucumán 2	1:2 ✺
12.02.26	Godoy Cruz 2 - Sarmiento de Junín 2	1:2 ✺
04.02.26	Sarmiento de Junín 2 - Gimnasia Mendoza 2	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Argentinos Juniors 2 - Sarmiento de Junín 2	N/A ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 LLWT?
- Gimnasia La Plata 2
Argentinian Reserve League
02.03.26	Gimnasia La Plata 2 - Argentinos Juniors 2	1:1 ✺
16.02.26	Aldosivi 2 - Gimnasia La Plata 2	1:3 ✺
10.02.26	Gimnasia La Plata 2 - Instituto 2	1:1 ✺
03.02.26	Gimnasia La Plata 2 - Unión Santa Fe 2	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Gimnasia La Plata 2 - Racing Club 2	N/A ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TWTW?

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Reserve League
23.09.25	Sarmiento de Junín 2 - Gimnasia La Plata 2	0:2
24.04.25	Gimnasia La Plata 2 - Sarmiento de Junín 2	4:2
25.05.23	Sarmiento de Junín 2 - Gimnasia La Plata 2	2:0
26.08.22	Gimnasia La Plata 2 - Sarmiento de Junín 2	2:0
15.04.22	Gimnasia La Plata 2 - Sarmiento de Junín 2	1:0

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