Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Porto, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 25 June 2026, Thursday


	Daniil Ostapenkov		Tiago Pereira

	1	2
			Watch
	2.50	1.45
	2.43	1.50
	2.56	1.52
	2.34	1.52	Watch
	2.38	1.50
	2.42	1.50	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (2)	1.5 ↓ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniil Ostapenkov
38.1%

Tiago Pereira
61.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.9%

54.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.4%

58.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniil Ostapenkov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Daniil Ostapenkov's form might have worsened.

Tiago Pereira has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tiago Pereira's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniil Ostapenkov than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tiago Pereira than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Daniil Ostapenkov - Tiago Pereira Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Ostapenkov is ranked ATP: 535. Pereira is ranked ATP: 328.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Pereira may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Pereira is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Tiago Pereira - the odds 1.7 are the expected chance of winning is 54.12%, but this team recently wins 69% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniil Ostapenkov
ITF Tournaments
24.06.26	Daniil Ostapenkov - Guilherme Valdoleiros	2:0 ✺
30.05.26	Yanki Erel - Daniil Ostapenkov	2:0 ✺
28.05.26	Daniil Sarksian - Daniil Ostapenkov	0:2 ✺
27.05.26	Adam Kaczmarek - Daniil Ostapenkov	0:2 ✺
23.05.26	Vadym Ursu - Daniil Ostapenkov	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLWWL
- Tiago Pereira
ITF Tournaments
24.06.26	Vasco Leote Prata - Tiago Pereira	1:2 ✺
ATP Halle
13.06.26	Tiago Pereira - Tom Gentzsch	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
09.06.26	Tiago Pereira - Andrej Martin	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
30.05.26	Tiago Pereira - Noa Vukadin	1:2 ✺
29.05.26	Tiago Pereira - Alan Wazny	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 WLLLW

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