Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Olbia, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 13 October 2026, Tuesday


	Mathys Erhard		Valentin Royer

	1	2
	3.75	1.25	Watch
	3.60	1.25
	3.70	1.24
	3.66	1.22	Watch
	3.85	1.24
	3.74	1.23	Watch
	3.60	1.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.7 ↑ (2.89)	1.24 ↓ (1.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mathys Erhard
25.1%

Valentin Royer
74.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.7%

68.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.9%

73.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mathys Erhard has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mathys Erhard's form might have worsened.

Valentin Royer has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Valentin Royer's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mathys Erhard than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valentin Royer than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Mathys Erhard - Valentin Royer Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Erhard is ranked ATP: 373., and Royer is ranked ATP: 105..

In recent outings, Erhard has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Royer has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Royer could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bookmakers give the edge to Royer for this game.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Last Results with these Odds

Mathys Erhard - the odds 2.89 are the expected chance of winning is 31.68%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mathys Erhard
ATP Challenger
12.10.26	Mathys Erhard - Leo Raquillet	2:0 ✺
11.10.26	Mathys Erhard - Lorenzo Rocco	2:0 ✺
04.10.26	Mathys Erhard - Oliver Tarvet	0:2 ✺
28.09.26	Mathys Erhard - Alberto Barroso Campos	1:2 ✺
27.09.26	Mathys Erhard - Paul Theate	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WWLLW
- Valentin Royer
ATP Shanghai
08.10.26	Daniel Vallejo - Valentin Royer	2:0 ✺
ATP Beijing
28.09.26	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Valentin Royer	2:1 ✺
ATP Hangzhou
26.09.26	Daniil Medvedev - Valentin Royer	2:0 ✺
23.09.26	Valentin Royer - Adam Walton	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
31.08.26	Dalibor Svrcina - Valentin Royer	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLLWL

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