Match Info

Champions League - Winners stage - Round 2

Date: 28 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Ano Liosia Olympic Hall (Athens)

Referee: Horozov M. (Bul)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2, Oneplay
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 5
Slovakia	Voyo


	AEK Athens		ALBA Berlin

	1	2
	1.45	2.6	Watch
	1.52	2.4	Watch
	1.62	2.35
	1.57	2.28	Watch
	1.57	2.25
	1.57	2.41	Watch
	1.47	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.55)	2.41 ↑ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 163.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AEK Athens
61%

ALBA Berlin
39%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.2%

39.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

44.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AEK Athens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ALBA Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AEK Athens than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with AEK Athens that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for ALBA Berlin than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that ALBA Berlin could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	0%	8.3%

AEK Athens - ALBA Berlin Predictions

Users Predictions: AEK Athens will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): AEK Athens will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 84:80

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Arms A.	17. Agbakoko N.
24. Bartley F.	5. Griesel S.
7. Flionis D. (C)	15. Hermannsson M.
0. Gray R.	9. Mattisseck J. (C)
1. Skordilis G.	11. Wood M.
Substitutes
11. Arsenopoulos N.	6. Delow M.
2. Brown G.	14. Echodas M.
33. Charalampopoulos V.	33. Hundt B.
8. Feazell K.	7. Kayil J.
22. Ioannou V.	20. Nufer A.
19. Kuzminskas M.	3. O'Connell A.
9. Lekavicius L.	13. Roberts J.
Coaches
. Sakota D.	. Calles P.

Preview

AEK has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

ALBA is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

AEK may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

AEK might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

ALBA Berlin - the odds 2.34 are the expected chance of winning is 39.76%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AEK Athens BC
Champions League Basketball
21.01.26	AEK Athens - Karditsas	88:73 ✺
Greek Basket League A1
17.01.26	Karditsas - AEK Athens	71:79 ✺
11.01.26	AEK Athens - Mykonos	90:65 ✺
03.01.26	Promitheas Patras - AEK Athens	86:94 ✺
27.12.25	AEK Athens - Aris	82:76 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWWWW
- ALBA Berlin
German BBL
25.01.26	ALBA Berlin - Brose Bamberg	87:82 OT ✺
Champions League Basketball
20.01.26	Tofaş - ALBA Berlin	90:94 ✺
German BBL
17.01.26	Rasta Vechta - ALBA Berlin	83:95 ✺
11.01.26	ALBA Berlin - Heidelberg	87:62 ✺
04.01.26	EWE Baskets Oldenburg - ALBA Berlin	76:73 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWWWL

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