Match Info

Liga Uruguaya - Winners stage

Date: 19 March 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Aguada (Montevideo) 🌤️ ...


	Aguada		Defensor Sporting

	1	2
			Watch
	1.36	2.65
	1.36	2.87
	1.42	2.63	Watch
	1.36	2.8
	1.39	2.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 (1.38)	2.74 (2.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 173.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aguada
66.6%

Defensor Sporting
33.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

66.5%

33.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.9%

40.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aguada has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Defensor Sporting has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aguada than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aguada that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Defensor Sporting could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Aguada - Defensor Sporting Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 90:84

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
5. Clark E.	43. Colmenares N.
3. Osimani J.	00. Metzger T.
23. Santos L.	1. Rudd V.
8. Sims D.	15. Terra F.
4. Vidal S.	3. Weaver E.
Substitutes
21. Barragan T.	9. Antunes M.
1. Fernandez M.	21. Cuervo M.
14. Gentile A.	27. De Leon F.
6. Pereiras F.	11. Gomez B.
10. Rodriguez J.	23. MacMullen M.
13. Santiso J. (C)	77. Soto F. (C)
24. Zuvich A.	13. Zubiaurre M.
Coaches
. Vadell D.	. Brea G.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aguada won 4.

Aguada is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Defensor has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Defensor may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Aguada will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Aguada will win today's game, with odds of 1.41.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aguada won 15 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 1732:1642. (average 86.6:82.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Aguada won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 848:769. (average 84.8:76.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	L		Pts
8	Defensor	1	1	0	83:64	2
10	Aguada	2	2	0	149:144	2

Last Results with these Odds

Defensor Sporting - the odds 2.74 are the expected chance of winning is 33.5%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Aguada
Uruguayan Liga Basketball
16.03.26	Hebraica y Macabi - Aguada	77:97 ✺
09.03.26	Aguada - Peñarol de Montevideo	86:80 ✺
19.02.26	Defensor Sporting - Aguada	98:92 ✺
16.02.26	Aguada - Hebraica y Macabi	85:80 ✺
13.02.26	Aguada - Unión Atlética	90:76 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWLWW
- BC Defensor Sporting
Uruguayan Liga Basketball
16.03.26	Malvín - Defensor Sporting	85:83 ✺
12.03.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	88:80 ✺
09.03.26	Defensor Sporting - Hebraica y Macabi	87:90 ✺
19.02.26	Defensor Sporting - Aguada	98:92 ✺
12.02.26	Defensor Sporting - Nacional	82:73 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Liga Basketball
19.02.26	Defensor Sporting - Aguada	98:92
24.01.26	Aguada - Defensor Sporting	90:76
30.03.25	Aguada - Defensor Sporting	83:75
10.01.25	Defensor Sporting - Aguada	85:89
05.11.24	Aguada - Defensor Sporting	96:84
23.04.24	Defensor Sporting - Aguada	91:85
04.03.24	Aguada - Defensor Sporting	82:77

Aguada - Defensor Sporting: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide