Match Info

AIHL

Date: 15 August 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AIHL TV


	Sydney Bears		Perth Thunder

	1	X	2
	1.75	5.00	2.95
	1.93	4.90	2.80
	1.81	4.96	2.84
	1.81	5.14	3.07	Watch
	1.80	4.90	2.75
	1.78	4.80	3.06
	1.81	4.80	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (2.22)	4.93 ↓ (5)	2.93 ↑ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 8.25

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sydney Bears
50.3%

Draw
18.5%

Perth Thunder
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

18.2%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.6%

17.9%

40.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sydney Bears has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sydney Bears's performance.

Perth Thunder has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Perth Thunder might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sydney Bears than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sydney Bears that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Perth Thunder than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Perth Thunder could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Sydney Bears - Perth Thunder Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Sydney Bears will win (votes: 1 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 5:4

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Key Events of the Match

1st Period (3 - 1)
03:08, 1 - 0, Sadovski K. (G), Moncrieff N. (A),
07:07, 2 - 0, Wardlaw A. (G), Landa T. (A), Nalos R. (A2)
09:20, 3 - 0, Landa T. (G), Chambers B. (A), Withey F. (A2)
14:29, 3 - 1, Webster K. (G), Sucher P. (A), Plouffe F. (A2)
2nd Period (4 - 1)
00:27, 4 - 1, Seitz N. (G), Chambers B. (A), Sadovski K. (A2)
01:36, 5 - 1, Wardlaw A. (G), Clare T. (A), Moncrieff N. (A2)
06:10, 6 - 1, Seitz N. (G), Withey F. (A), Moncrieff N. (A2)
07:02, 7 - 1, Seitz N. (G), Herrmann L. (A), Hayashi K. (A2)
17:52, 7 - 2, Breault B. (G), Tenosalmi V. (A), Webster K. (A2)
3rd Period (3 - 3)
03:07, 7 - 3, Plouffe F. (G), Hrehorcak P. (A), Ruck J. (A2)
06:21, 8 - 3, Seitz N. (G), Withey F. (A), Wardlaw A. (A2)
06:32, 9 - 3, Herrmann L. (G), Seitz N. (A), Chambers B. (A2)
10:54, 9 - 4, Hrehorcak P. (G), Plouffe F. (A), Ruck J. (A2)
12:39, 10 - 4, Sadovski K. (G), Chambers B. (A), Seitz N. (A2)
17:58, 10 - 5, Lyashenko M. (G), Sucher P. (A), Tenosalmi V. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sydney Bears won 3.

Sydney Bears has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Perth is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Perth may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Perth has had a series of home games.

Sydney Bears is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Sydney Bears will win today's game, with odds of 1.92.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sydney Bears won 10 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 67:67. (average 3.4:3.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Sydney Bears won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 39:34. (average 3.5:3.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Perth Thunder - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 40.81%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sydney Bears
Australian Ice Hockey League
09.08.26	Sydney Bears - Central Coast Rhinos	4:2 ✺
02.08.26	Melbourne Ice - Sydney Bears	2:6 ✺
26.07.26	Central Coast Rhinos - Sydney Bears	6:7 penalties ✺
25.07.26	Sydney Bears - Sydney Ice Dogs	3:5 ✺
19.07.26	Melbourne Mustangs - Sydney Bears	7:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WWWLL
- Perth Thunder
Australian Ice Hockey League
09.08.26	Perth Thunder - Melbourne Mustangs	0:6 ✺
08.08.26	Perth Thunder - Melbourne Mustangs	3:4 ✺
02.08.26	Newcastle North Stars - Perth Thunder	4:3 ✺
25.07.26	Perth Thunder - Newcastle North Stars	3:8 ✺
12.07.26	Perth Thunder - Melbourne Ice	2:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian Ice Hockey League
30.05.26	Perth Thunder - Sydney Bears	6:1
04.08.24	Perth Thunder - Sydney Bears	2:7
03.08.24	Perth Thunder - Sydney Bears	3:5
21.07.24	Sydney Bears - Perth Thunder	3:6
08.06.24	Sydney Bears - Perth Thunder	4:2
13.08.23	Perth Thunder - Sydney Bears	6:1
12.08.23	Perth Thunder - Sydney Bears	2:3

Sydney Bears - Perth Thunder: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide