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Current Win Probability
Adhyaksa Bekasi 53.7%
Draw 25%
Sumsel United 21.3%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
45.1%
25.8%
29.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
45.3%
25.9%
29%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Adhyaksa Bekasi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Adhyaksa Bekasi's performance.
Sumsel United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sumsel United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Adhyaksa Bekasi than the current prediction. (-8.4%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Adhyaksa Bekasi that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sumsel United than the current prediction. (+7.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sumsel United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Adhyaksa Bekasi - Sumsel United Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
17. Fani D. (G) 14. Azka F. 6. Budiyono A. 7. Gholy Z. 16. Ibrahim H. (C) 28. Mandosir E. 20. Saputro R. 64. Selang R. 10. Shimizu T. 13. Wahyu D. 5. Widiansyah R.
81. Ramadhan A. (G) 4. Akbar R. 16. Bhagascara C. 34. Damara F. 22. Darmawan T. 14. Mochizuki H. 32. Ngwoke K. 6. Pangestu T. 78. Poru W. 28. Satria A. (C) 27. Subhi A.
Substitutes
15. Dwi A. 68. Fadzillah A. 77. Jackson Tiwu 96. Maulana F. 26. Mila I. 12. Nurzaidin N. 4. Owen A. 81. Razzaqu R. (G) 29. Rudiyana 11. Tuhuteru E. 9. Winchester R. 8. Zakaria M.
5. Atapelwa D. 23. Dimas R. 10. Felipe Ryan 99. Firdaus F. 55. Habiby W. 47. Hardi D. 9. Hartono D. 25. Sokoy F. 11. Toyo K. 64. Triatmojo P. (G) 26. Vedhayanto K. 21. Zakaria
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Widiansyah R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Selang R. ↓, Winchester R. ↑,
49', Saputro R. ↓, Jackson Tiwu ↑,
64', 1 - 0, Shimizu T. (Penalty Awarded),
66', Mochizuki H. ↓, Hardi D. ↑,
67', Pangestu T. ↓, Hartono D. ↑,
68', Darmawan T. 🟨,
78', Ngwoke K. ↓, Firdaus F. ↑,
81', Damara F. 🟨,
90', Darmawan T. ↓, Zakaria ↑,
90+2', Ibrahim H. ↓, Zakaria M. ↑,
90+9', 1 - 1, Hardi D. ⚽,
Preview
Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 8th and 5th).
Adhyaksa is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Sumsel United has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Adhyaksa holding a narrow advantage.
In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Adhyaksa has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 3:3 (averaging 1:1 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Adhyaksa against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 1:0 goals.
Indonesia
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Fani D. (G) 
Shimizu T. 
Ngwoke K. 
Winchester R. 
Felipe Ryan 
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