Match Info

First League - Round 7

Date: 21 May 2026, Thursday


	Aktobe 2		Yelimay 2

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.95	3.7
	1.73	3.86	3.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 (1.72)	3.91 ↓ (3.95)	3.8 ↓ (3.87)

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aktobe 2
52.9%

Draw
23.2%

Yelimay 2
23.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.2%

23.2%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

18.8%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aktobe 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Yelimay 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aktobe 2 than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aktobe 2 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Yelimay 2 than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Yelimay 2 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', 1 - 0, Begimov A. ⚽, Zheksenbay Z. (A),
26', 1 - 1, Ospan D. (Own goal),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
56', 2 - 1, Arystanov D. ⚽, Muratov D. (A),
83', 3 - 1, Arystanov D. ⚽,
85', Sergazy M. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 11 and 14 in the zone Relegation).

In recent matches, Aktobe 2 has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Yelimay 2 has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Aktobe 2 has had a series of away games.

In this match, Aktobe 2 is a strong favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Aktobe 2	24	6	6	12	42:73	-31	24
14	Yelimay Semey 2 ✔	24	3	3	18	19:50	-31	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Aktobe 2
Kazakh First League
15.05.26	Shakhter Karagandy - Aktobe 2	7:0 ✺
08.05.26	Batyr Ekibastuz - Aktobe 2	1:1 ✺
23.04.26	Kairat 2 - Aktobe 2	6:0 ✺
17.04.26	Aktobe 2 - Taraz	1:0 ✺
03.04.26	Astana 2 - Aktobe 2	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 LTLWT
- Yelimay Semey 2
Kazakh First League
14.05.26	Yelimay 2 - Kaspiy Aktau 2	0:4 ✺
07.05.26	Kairat 2 - Yelimay 2	1:0 ✺
30.04.26	Yelimay 2 - Batyr Ekibastuz	0:2 ✺
24.04.26	Taraz - Yelimay 2	3:0 ✺
17.04.26	Yelimay 2 - Khan Tengri	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLLLT

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