Match Info

Saudi Professional League - Round 5

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Al Taawon Arena (Buraidah)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	JACO Middle East
Brazil	BandSports, Canal GOAT
China	QQ Sports
Saudi-arabia	Thmanyah


	Al-Taawoun		Damac

	1	X	2
	1.6	4.2	4.5
	1.58	3.85	5.5
	1.56	4.33	5.39
	1.93	3.43	3.64	Watch
	1.56	3.84	5.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.97)	3.93 ↑ (3.42)	4.93 ↑ (3.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Taawoun
57%

Draw
23.9%

Damac
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.2%

27.2%

25.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

26.1%

24.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Taawoun has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Al-Taawoun's performance.

Damac has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Damac might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Taawoun than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Al-Taawoun that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Damac than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Damac could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Al Taawoun - Damac Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Taawoun (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Al-Taawoun will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mailson (G) 5. Mahzari M. 3. Andrei Girotto 23. Al Ahmad W. 32. Al Mufarrij M. 8. Flavio 18. El Mahdioui A. (C) 11. Fulgini A. 27. Mandash S. 10. Martinez Tobinson R. B. 99. Barrow M.	1. Kewin (G) 12. Al Hawsawi S. 15. Harkass J. 3. Bedrane A. (C) 20. Al Anazi D. 26. Sharahili R. 2. Sylla M. 8. Vada V. 28. Medina J. 90. Al Ghamdi H. 77. David Kaiki
Substitutes
9. Adam A. 17. Al Aqel M. S. M. 55. Al Dossary M. 66. Al Hurayji B. 7. Al Kuwaykibi M. 13. Atiah A. (G) 29. Bahusayn A. 21. Faivre R. 77. Hawsawi A.	6. Abdullah T. 33. Al Baqaawi M. (G) 23. Al Hassan J. 22. Al Khaibre A. R. 7. Al Qahtani A. 88. Al Samiri K. 80. Naji Y. 21. Omar A. 5. Rabea H.
Coaches
Chamusca P.	Evangelista A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Al Ahmad W. ⚽,
13', 2 - 0, Mandash S. ⚽,
31', 2 - 1, Vada V. ⚽, Al Anazi D. (A),
40', Al Ghamdi H. 🟥,
2nd Half (4 - 0)
53', 3 - 1, Harkass J. (Own goal),
55', Vada V. 🟨,
59', David Kaiki 🟥,
60', Medina J. ↓, Rabea H. ↑,
60', Sharahili R. ↓, Abdullah T. ↑,
68', Mandash S. ↓, Al Kuwaykibi M. ↑,
68', Al Mufarrij M. ↓, Al Hurayji B. ↑,
68', Fulgini A. ↓, Bahusayn A. ↑,
68', 4 - 1, Martinez Tobinson R. B. ⚽, Barrow M. (A),
72', Martinez Tobinson R. B. ↓, Adam A. ↑,
72', Barrow M. ↓, Faivre R. ↑,
74', Sylla M. ↓, Al Samiri K. ↑,
80', Vada V. ↓, Al Qahtani A. ↑,
80', Al Anazi D. ↓, Al Khaibre A. R. ↑,
87', 5 - 1, Al Hurayji B. ⚽, Al Kuwaykibi M. (A),
88', 6 - 1, Faivre R. ⚽, Adam A. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Al-Taawoun won 3.

Al-Taawoun is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Damac has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Al-Taawoun is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Al-Taawoun will win today's game, with odds of 1.82.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Al-Taawoun won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:12. (average 1.5:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Al-Taawoun won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:4. (average 1.7:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Taawoun FC
Saudi Professional League
25.09.25	Al-Khaleej - Al-Taawoun	0:1 ✺
Saudi King Cup
21.09.25	Al-Faisaly - Al-Taawoun	0:4 ✺
Saudi Professional League
18.09.25	Al-Taawoun - Al-Ettifaq Dammam	4:1 ✺
13.09.25	Al Akhdoud - Al-Taawoun	2:3 ✺
29.08.25	Al-Taawoun - Al-Nassr Riyadh	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WWWWL
- Damac FC
Saudi Professional League
26.09.25	Damac - Al-Ettifaq Dammam	1:3 ✺
Saudi King Cup
23.09.25	Al-Najma - Damac	2:1 ✺
Saudi Professional League
18.09.25	Al-Kholood - Damac	2:1 ✺
14.09.25	Damac - Neom	1:2 ✺
28.08.25	Damac - Al Hazem	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Saudi Professional League
08.03.25	Al-Taawoun - Damac	3:0
19.10.24	Damac - Al-Taawoun	2:2
26.04.24	Damac - Al-Taawoun	0:1
05.11.23	Al-Taawoun - Damac	0:0
04.03.23	Damac - Al-Taawoun	1:2
16.09.22	Al-Taawoun - Damac	1:1
27.06.22	Damac - Al-Taawoun	1:1

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