The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Bombada 31.4%
Draw 33.3%
Fortune 35.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
35.2%
32.1%
32.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
35.9%
32.7%
32.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Bombada has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)
Fortune has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bombada than the current prediction. (+4.5%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortune than the current prediction. (-3.2%)
Bombada - Fortune Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
43', 1 - 0, Jarju E. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
Preview
The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ CAF Champions League (Qualification: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bombada won 2.
In recent matches, Bombada has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Fortune is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Fortune may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Bombada won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 1.3:1.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Bombada won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).
Standings
2025/26
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
2
Fortune
30
14
11
5
33:21
12
53
4
Bombada
30
11
11
8
36:32
4
44
Last Results with these Odds
Fortune - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 32.69%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.
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