Match Info

2. Lig Red Group - Round 17

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Timsah Arena (Bursa) 🌤️ ...


	Bursaspor		Aliaga

	1	X	2
	1.58	3.9	4.15
	1.67	3.55	4.59
	1.93	3.39	3.64	Watch
	1.8	3.4	3.7
	1.85	3.84	3.59	Watch
	1.83	3.33	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (2.38)	3.57 ↑ (2.97)	3.91 ↑ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Bursaspor
51.2%

Draw
25.5%

Aliaga
23.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38%

30.5%

31.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

30.6%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bursaspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bursaspor's performance.

Aliaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Aliaga might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bursaspor than the current prediction. (-13.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bursaspor that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aliaga than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Aliaga could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Bursaspor - Aliaga Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ 1. Lig and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ 2. Lig Play Offs (Play Offs: )).

Bursaspor is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Aliaga's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Bursaspor may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Bursaspor is considered a favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bursaspor
Turkish Second League Red Group
16.12.25	Somaspor - Bursaspor	0:3 ✺
12.12.25	Bursaspor - Ankara Demirspor	4:0 ✺
30.11.25	Bursaspor - Fethiyespor	3:0 ✺
09.11.25	Guzide Gebzespor - Bursaspor	4:1 ✺
02.11.25	Bursaspor - Kahramanmaraş İstiklalspor	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WWWLW
- Aliaga FK
Turkish Second League Red Group
16.12.25	Aliaga - Aksaray Belediyespor	1:1 ✺
12.12.25	Menemenspor - Aliaga	2:1 ✺
07.12.25	Aliaga - Kırklarelispor	3:0 ✺
Turkish Cup
03.12.25	Sivasspor - Aliaga	1:3 ✺
Turkish Second League Red Group
29.11.25	Isparta 32 Spor - Aliaga	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 TLWWT

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bursaspor
Turkish First League
31.10.26	Bursaspor - Bandırmaspor	✺

Bursaspor - Aliaga