Match Info

USL Super League Women

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: American Legion Memorial Stadium (Charlotte, NC) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Usa	19:00	Peacock


	Carolina Ascent		Sporting Jacksonville

	1	X	2
	2.10	3.10	3.10
	2.30	3.05	2.70
	2.01	3.33	3.38
	2.08	3.31	3.21
	2.21	3.29	3.09
	2	3.3	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.48)	3.23 ↑ (3.05)	3.11 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carolina Ascent
42.8%

Draw
28%

Sporting Jacksonville
29.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35.6%

29%

35.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

27.9%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carolina Ascent has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Carolina Ascent's performance.

Sporting Jacksonville has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sporting Jacksonville might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carolina Ascent than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Carolina Ascent that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Jacksonville than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Carolina Ascent - Sporting Jacksonville Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
15. Martinez S. (G) 13. Merrick A. 2. Tappan R. 5. Butler J. 7. Aguilera J. 10. Baisden R. 9. Corbin M. 28. Nabet L. 18. Coleman A. 31. George M. 20. Groom S.	13. Parks K. (G) 5. Brown G. 32. Illig M. 24. Phillpotts G. 4. Hennessey A. 8. Jones S. (C) 3. Boman S. 7. Hughes M. 10. Puerta A. 27. Kenton P. 17. DeSmit B.
Substitutes
4. Cook A. 99. Hisey H. (G) 24. Morris E. 8. Moxley E. 19. Nally M. 23. Parker R. 14. Porter T.	18. Descary M. 20. Dockter K. 23. Fontenot G. 1. Gerstenberg J. (G) 21. Swinton M. 9. Teater M. 36. Thistle C.
Coaches
Poole P.	Balaam S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, DeSmit B. ⚽, Puerta A. (A),
39', 1 - 1, Groom S. ⚽, Corbin M. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Baisden R. ↓, Parker R. ↑,
49', Groom S. 🟨,
51', Hennessey A. 🟨,
59', Groom S. ↓, Porter T. ↑,
61', 2 - 1, Aguilera J. ⚽,
65', Corbin M. ↓, Morris E. ↑,
68', Hughes M. 🟨,
68', Poole P. 🟨,
71', 2 - 2, Hennessey A. ⚽, Jones S. (A),
72', Hennessey A. ↓, Descary M. ↑,
76', Butler J. 🟨,
78', 2 - 3, DeSmit B. (Penalty Awarded),
80', Coleman A. ↓, Cook A. ↑,
82', Hughes M. ↓, Fontenot G. ↑,
83', Puerta A. ↓, Thistle C. ↑,
83', 3 - 3, Tappan R. ⚽, Aguilera J. (A),
85', Parker R. 🟨,
90+4', Cook A. 🟨,

Preview

A clash between two contenders competing at the top of the table (ranked 1st in the Promotion ~ USL Super League Women Playoffs and 3rd in the Promotion ~ USL Super League Women Playoffs).

Carolina is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Sporting Jax have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Sporting Jax may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Carolina has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 9:8 (averaging 1.8:1.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Carolina against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 6:5 goals (averaging 3:2.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Carolina Ascent W	10	7	2	1	17:6	11	23
2	Sporting Jax W	9	4	3	2	19:14	5	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carolina Ascent
USL Super League Women
19.09.26	Carolina Ascent - Brooklyn	1:0 ✺
11.09.26	Lexington - Carolina Ascent	0:1 ✺
05.09.26	Carolina Ascent - Fort Lauderdale United	3:0 ✺
29.08.26	Carolina Ascent - Tampa Bay Sun	1:2 ✺
22.08.26	Dallas Trinity - Carolina Ascent	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWWLW
- Sporting Jacksonville Women
USL Super League Women
20.09.26	Sporting Jacksonville - Lexington	0:1 ✺
13.09.26	Brooklyn - Sporting Jacksonville	3:2 ✺
04.09.26	DC Power - Sporting Jacksonville	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Sporting Jacksonville - Dallas Trinity	2:0 ✺
22.08.26	Sporting Jacksonville - Tampa Bay Sun	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

USL Super League Women
24.05.26	Sporting Jacksonville - Carolina Ascent	0:1
16.05.26	Carolina Ascent - Sporting Jacksonville	3:1
31.01.26	Sporting Jacksonville - Carolina Ascent	1:0
28.09.25	Carolina Ascent - Sporting Jacksonville	3:4
13.09.25	Sporting Jacksonville - Carolina Ascent	2:2

Carolina Ascent - Sporting Jacksonville