Match Info

Primera B - Clausura - Round 9

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Polideportivo Sur (Envigado)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Usa	Fanatiz, SportsEngine Play


	Envigado		Leones

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.52	3.50	5.50
	1.62	3.30	5.00	Watch
	1.56	3.68	6.75
	1.69	3.46	5.26	Watch
	1.54	3.60	6.65
	1.57	3.69	6.23	Watch
	1.51	3.45	6.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.86)	3.53 ↑ (3.05)	5.91 ↑ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Envigado
58.4%

Draw
26.1%

Leones
15.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.2%

29.4%

22.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

28.7%

21.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Envigado has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Envigado's performance.

Leones has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Leones might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Envigado than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Envigado that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Leones could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Envigado - Leones Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
88. Tovar A. (G) 19. Acuna S. 80. Aristizabal J. 25. Cuero M. 15. Cuervo G. 7. Dawson D. 28. Gamboa Valencia J. J. 6. Palacio J. 2. Palacios D. 17. Rodallega Y. 77. Valencia Mosquera D. A.	1. Figueroa J. (G) 13. Arboleda M. (C) 33. Lopez Posada I. 24. Montoya S. 3. Moreno J. 26. Posada S. 16. Renteria J. 7. Rodriguez Cespedes C. 21. Segura O. 29. Soto T. 8. Villa D.
Substitutes
20. Catano J. 8. Hurtado W. 33. Londono E. 1. Mora J. (G) 32. Nieva J. 27. Quejada J. . Rey J. 10. Rodriguez J. . Salinas S.	12. Arboleda J. (G) 25. Calle T. 35. Echeverri J. 17. Montoya J. 32. Pasos E. 20. Penaloza K. 22. Restrepo J. 18. Restrepo N. 10. Sanchez L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', Palacios D. 🟨,
25', 1 - 0, Acuna S. ⚽,
37', Montoya S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Cuero M. ↓, Nieva J. ↑,
65', Posada S. ↓, Calle T. ↑,
65', Segura O. ↓, Montoya J. ↑,
67', Acuna S. 🟨,
71', Valencia Mosquera D. A. ↓, Rey J. ↑,
85', 1 - 1, Lopez Posada I. ⚽,
89', 🟨,
90+6', 🟨,
90+7', 🟨,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 13 and 11)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Envigado won 1.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Leones may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Envigado is seen as the favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Envigado won 2 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:6. (average 1.1:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Envigado won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 1:0.8).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Envigado	11	2	6	3	12:11	1	12
15	Leones	11	2	4	5	8:17	-9	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Envigado FC
Colombian Primera B
06.09.26	Boca Juniors de Cali - Envigado	2:2 ✺
01.09.26	Envigado - Unión Magdalena	0:1 ✺
19.08.26	Tigres - Envigado	2:1 ✺
03.08.26	Independiente Valle del Cauca - Envigado	1:1 ✺
Colombian Copa
30.07.26	Envigado - Once Caldas	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 TLLTL
- Leones FC
Colombian Primera B
04.09.26	Leones - Atlético Cali	0:3 ✺
28.08.26	Independiente Valle del Cauca - Leones	1:0 ✺
24.08.26	Leones - Real Cartagena	1:6 ✺
20.08.26	Leones - Real Cundinamarca	1:1 ✺
06.08.26	Bogotá - Leones	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera B
11.03.26	Leones - Envigado	0:3
Colombian Copa
24.04.19	Envigado - Leones	1:1
13.03.19	Leones - Envigado	0:0
Colombian Primera A
25.08.18	Leones - Envigado	1:1
03.03.18	Envigado - Leones	1:1
Colombian Copa
03.05.17	Leones - Envigado	1:1
16.03.17	Envigado - Leones	1:0

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