Match Info

Ligue Professionnelle 1 - Round 9

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi (Radès)

Where to Watch on TV:


Tunisia	Diwan Sport


	Espérance ST		Étoile du Sahel

	1	X	2
	1.44	3.7	6.7
	1.44	3.74	9.16
	1.51	3.69	6.74	Watch
	1.49	4.11	7.6	Watch
	1.47	3.66	6.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↑ (1.41)	3.78 ↓ (3.8)	7.31 ↓ (7.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Espérance ST
62.9%

Draw
24.5%

Étoile du Sahel
12.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.2%

23.8%

12%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.1%

23.1%

11.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Espérance ST has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Étoile du Sahel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Espérance ST than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Étoile du Sahel than the current prediction. (-1%)

Espérance ST - Étoile du Sahel Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Espérance ST (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - Espérance ST (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Espérance ST (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Ben Said B. (G) 11. Belaili Y. 2. Ben Ali M. 22. Danho F. 27. Guenichi K. 31. Jebali C. 12. Laifi N. 5. Meriah Y. 8. Tka H. 15. Tougai M. 10. Yan Sasse	32. Ben Hessen S. (G) 25. Ben Choug F. 7. Benmazouz M. 19. Bouslama M. 18. Cristo 21. Ferjani N. 26. Ghedamsi S. 5. Hnid N. 2. Omija A. 23. Ouertani M. A. 11. Senghor M.
Substitutes
7. Boualia K. 13. Bouchniba R. 17. Dhaou H. 19. Jabri A. 6. Jelassi H. 30. Maacha K. 1. Memmiche A. (G) 14. Ogbelu O. 28. Rached Y.	8. Al Qulaib N. 29. Ben Amor M. 15. Boughattas Z. 4. Bouzaabia M. 9. Chaabani M. 13. Chouchane M. 16. Gazzeh R. (G) 22. Horchani A. 27. Khadraoui S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, Yan Sasse ⚽, Guenichi K. (A),
30', Belaili Y. 🟨,
39', Ben Ali M. ↓, Bouchniba R. ↑,
45+1', Tougai M. ↓, Ogbelu O. ↑,
45+3', Benmazouz M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Yan Sasse ↓, Boualia K. ↑,
66', Benmazouz M. ↓, Chaabani M. ↑,
78', Jebali C. ↓, Jelassi H. ↑,
78', Danho F. ↓, Jabri A. ↑,
82', Ben Said B. 🟨,
86', Ben Choug F. ↓, Al Qulaib N. ↑,
90+1', Boualia K. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ CAF Champions League (Qualification: ) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Espérance ST won 5.

Espérance ST is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Étoile du Sahel has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Espérance ST is the undeniable favorite.

We predict that Espérance ST will win today's game, with odds of 1.41.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Espérance ST won 13 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 26:8. (average 1.3:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Espérance ST won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 15:3. (average 1.5:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Espérance ST
Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1
01.10.25	Marsa - Espérance ST	0:3 ✺
CAF Champions League
27.09.25	Espérance ST - AS FAN	4:1 ✺
Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1
24.09.25	Espérance ST - Olympique Béja	2:0 ✺
16.09.25	Espérance ST - Métlaoui	2:0 ✺
13.09.25	Stade Tunisien - Espérance ST	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWWWL
- Étoile du Sahel
Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1
01.10.25	Étoile du Sahel - Stade Tunisien	1:1 ✺
CAF Confederation Cup
27.09.25	Étoile du Sahel - Al-Ahli Wad Madani	3:0 ✺
Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1
24.09.25	Soliman - Étoile du Sahel	0:2 ✺
16.09.25	Étoile du Sahel - JS Kairouan	2:3 ✺
13.09.25	Monastir - Étoile du Sahel	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1
26.02.25	Espérance ST - Étoile du Sahel	3:0
03.11.24	Étoile du Sahel - Espérance ST	0:2
12.05.24	Espérance ST - Étoile du Sahel	3:2
10.03.24	Étoile du Sahel - Espérance ST	0:1
CAF Champions League
24.02.24	Étoile du Sahel - Espérance ST	0:2
25.11.23	Espérance ST - Étoile du Sahel	2:0
Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1
10.06.23	Étoile du Sahel - Espérance ST	0:0

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