Match Info

GERMANY: Oberliga Hessen - Round 26

Date: 6 April 2024, Saturday


	Fernwald		Erlensee

	1	X	2
	1.6	4.2	4.33
	1.63	4.26	4.27
	1.64	4.27	4.28
	1.58	4.2	4.44
	1.6	4.2	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.72)	4.23 ↑ (4.06)	4.33 ↑ (3.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fernwald
57.1%

Draw
21.7%

Erlensee
21.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.4%

22.7%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50%

21.3%

25.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fernwald has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Erlensee has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fernwald than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fernwald that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erlensee than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Sabate D. ⚽,
42', 2 - 0, Mukasa B. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
66', 3 - 0, Hofmann J. ⚽,
86', 4 - 0, Siebert D. ⚽,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 8 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Fernwald won 0.

Recent matches Fernwald is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Erlensee is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Fernwald could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Fernwald is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Fernwald won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 7-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Fernwald won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FSV 1926 Fernwald
German Oberliga Hessen
01.04.24	Gießen - Fernwald	0:1 ✺
28.03.24	Fernwald - Eintracht Stadtallendorf	0:1 ✺
16.03.24	Fernwald - Waldgirmes	0:1 ✺
10.03.24	Rot-Weiss Walldorf - Fernwald	3:0 ✺
02.03.24	Fernwald - Bayern Alzenau	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WLLLW
- FC 1906 Erlensee
German Oberliga Hessen
28.03.24	Erlensee - Gießen	1:4 ✺
23.03.24	Adler Weidenhausen - Erlensee	0:0 ✺
09.03.24	Waldgirmes - Erlensee	2:0 ✺
02.03.24	Erlensee - Rot-Weiss Walldorf	2:1 ✺
17.02.24	Viktoria Griesheim - Erlensee	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

German Oberliga Hessen
16.09.23	Erlensee - Fernwald	2:1
18.03.23	Erlensee - Fernwald	4:1
03.09.22	Fernwald - Erlensee	3:3
Club Friendly
05.03.22	Erlensee - Fernwald	1:0
German Oberliga Hessen
06.11.21	Fernwald - Erlensee	1:1
16.10.21	Erlensee - Fernwald	3:1

Fernwald - Erlensee: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide