Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B - Round 5

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Municipal Stadium Farvão (Gouveia)


	Gouveia		Vila Real

	1	X	2
	3.62	3.29	1.85
	15.00	15.00	1.00	Watch
	3.63	3.36	1.9
	2.5	3.25	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.19 ↑ (2.5)	6.23 ↑ (3.25)	1.81 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gouveia
18.5%

Draw
18.4%

Vila Real
63.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

27.8%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

28.8%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gouveia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gouveia's form might have worsened.

Vila Real has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+27%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vila Real's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gouveia than the current prediction. (+18.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gouveia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vila Real than the current prediction. (-28.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vila Real, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Gouveia - Vila Real Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45', 0 - 1, Teixeira Azevedo A. F. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 4)
48', 0 - 2, Miguelito ⚽,
59', 0 - 3, Chiquinho ⚽,
74', 0 - 4, Bolaji O. ⚽,
79', 0 - 5, Miguelito ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 14 in the zone Relegation and 9).

Gouveia has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Vila Real's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Gouveia
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Rebordelo - Gouveia	3:2 penalties ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
14.09.25	Rebordosa - Gouveia	4:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
31.08.25	Gouveia - Beira-Mar	4:2 ET ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
24.08.25	Gouveia - Aparecida	1:2 ✺
17.08.25	Resende - Gouveia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LLWLL
- SC Vila Real
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Machico - Vila Real	0:2 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
14.09.25	Vila Real - União Lamas	1:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
30.08.25	Vila Real - Camacha	3:2 ET ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
24.08.25	Alpendorada - Vila Real	0:0 ✺
17.08.25	Vila Real - Cinfães	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 WLWTT

Gouveia - Vila Real: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide