Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 11

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	HLM		Gorée

	1	X	2
	3.25	2.52	2.42
	3.57	2.47	2.48
	3.2	2.45	2.45
	3.21	2.59	2.48	Watch
	3.4	2.54	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.33 ↓ (4.1)	2.51 ↓ (2.91)	2.44 ↑ (1.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HLM
27.1%

Draw
35.9%

Gorée
37%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

22.2%

31.2%

46.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.5%

30.2%

48.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HLM has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Gorée has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gorée might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HLM than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with HLM that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gorée than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gorée could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

HLM - Gorée Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 5)

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ CAF Champions League (Qualification: )).

HLM has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Gorée is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Gorée has had a series of home games.

In this match, Gorée is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, HLM won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Including home match between the teams, HLM won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	US Goree	2	1	1	0	2:0	2	4
5	ASC HLM	2	1	1	0	3:2	1	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HLM
Senegal Ligue 1
07.01.26	Guédiawaye - HLM	0:1 ✺
28.12.25	HLM - Teungueth	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	HLM - Wally Daan	2:2 ✺
07.12.25	AJEL de Rufisque - HLM	1:1 ✺
30.11.25	HLM - Ouakam	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 WTTTT
- US Gorée
Senegal Ligue 1
07.01.26	Gorée - Camberene	3:0 ✺
28.12.25	Gorée - Casa Sport	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Gorée - Pikine	0:0 ✺
29.11.25	Gorée - Génération Foot	2:1 ✺
16.11.25	Dakar SC - Gorée	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Senegal Ligue 1
01.12.24	HLM - Gorée	1:2

HLM - Gorée