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Current Win Probability
Hamburger SV 31.9%
Draw 24.7%
Nürnberg 43.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
40.9%
26.4%
32.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
42.9%
25.2%
31.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hamburger SV's form might have worsened.
Nürnberg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nürnberg's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+11%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hamburger SV, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nürnberg than the current prediction. (-12.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nürnberg, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Hamburger SV - Nürnberg Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
12. Szemik K. (G) 2. Doucoure M. 8. Stoldt S. 6. Bohler A. 26. Wrede J. 28. Machtens P. (C) 15. Peneau L. 7. Linberg C. 37. Bartz P. 10. Morich C. 20. Karczewska N.
1. Romero L. (G) 17. Bleil M. 22. Pollak J. 2. Varley L. 21. Bednorz K. 19. Homann S. 6. Coutel C. 10. Brengel J. 11. Meroni L. 15. Papai E. 24. Lein N. (C)
Substitutes
36. Baum J. (G) 11. Brunnthaler M. 21. Donges J. 29. Eggert L. 18. Martens L. 4. Mirzaliyeva N. 5. Obispo C. 39. Racke N. 32. Wrede L.
33. Adamczyk R. (G) 77. Barboz M. 5. Frohlich C. 99. Lapassouse L. 7. Licina S. 18. Mai F. 9. Miller L. 3. Proniez F. 28. Seguin M.
Coaches
Cardoso R.
Adlani O.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (3 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Karczewska N. ⚽, Morich C. (A),
20', Peneau L. 🟨,
27', 2 - 0, Karczewska N. ⚽,
28', Coutel C. ↓, Proniez F. ↑,
34', Wrede J. 🟨,
37', 3 - 0, Bartz P. ⚽,
45+2', Lein N. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Peneau L. ↓, Martens L. ↑,
46', Wrede J. ↓, Donges J. ↑,
46', Bednorz K. ↓, Lapassouse L. ↑,
58', Homann S. 🟨,
62', 4 - 0, Linberg C. ⚽, Karczewska N. (A),
63', Bleil M. 🟨,
64', Karczewska N. ↓, Brunnthaler M. ↑,
64', Morich C. ↓, Wrede L. ↑,
65', 4 - 1, Meroni L. ⚽,
67', Bleil M. ↓, Frohlich C. ↑,
67', Lein N. ↓, Seguin M. ↑,
77', Linberg C. ↓, Eggert L. ↑,
77', Papai E. ↓, Licina S. ↑,
84', 5 - 1, Eggert L. ⚽, Donges J. (A),
Preview
A high-tension relegation six-pointer between two sides desperate to escape the danger zone (ranked 11th and 12th).
Both teams are currently going through a difficult patch of form.
Hamburg could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Hamburg has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 5:3 (averaging 1.3:0.8 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Hamburg against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 2:3 goals (averaging 1:1.5 per game).
Austria
Germany
Switzerland
World
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Szemik K. (G) 
Doucoure M. 
Stoldt S. 
Linberg C. 
Romero L. (G) 
Varley L. 
Papai E. 
Brunnthaler M. 
Mirzaliyeva N. 
Obispo C. 
Barboz M. 
Licina S. 
Miller L. 
Cardoso R. 
Adlani O. 
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