Match Info

3. MSFL - Round 11

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadion U Cervenych domku (Hodonin) 🌤️ ...


	Hodonín		Frýdek-Místek

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.25	2.7
	2.24	3.23	2.87
	2.25	3.4	2.83	Watch
	2.19	3.15	2.8
	2.21	3.32	2.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↓ (2.26)	3.27 ↓ (3.68)	2.8 ↑ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hodonín
40.4%

Draw
27.5%

Frýdek-Místek
32.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.5%

24.9%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.9%

24.3%

33.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hodonín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Frýdek-Místek has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hodonín than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Frýdek-Místek than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Hodonín - Frýdek Místek Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Chropovsky M. (G) 14. Bohun P. (C) 11. Dunda A. 2. Durek P. 17. Grabl F. 10. Jager T. 16. Jambor D. 19. Kalabiska J. 6. Koci A. 25. Necas M. 8. Pernica L.	29. Lasak K. (G) 15. Bialek D. 6. Charles S. 20. Gorcica A. 10. Heller J. 19. Hykel T. 8. Kedron D. 4. Massaniec J. 12. Meca J. 18. Opeyemi M. 5. Velner M. (C)
Substitutes
3. Dressler P. 22. Lamacek M. 12. Novotny M. 1. Odraska T. (G) 15. Perina V. 18. Sehnal P. 4. Vincour T.	9. Dluhos D. 16. Guzik M. 11. Kohut T. 3. Sami F. 1. Skotnica M. (G) 2. Volny F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Jager T. (Penalty Awarded),
32', Kedron D. 🟨,
44', Bialek D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
49', (Penalty Awarded),
49', 2 - 0, Jambor D. ⚽,
55', 3 - 0, Jager T. ⚽,
57', Opeyemi M. ↓, Kohut T. ↑,
57', Bialek D. ↓, Guzik M. ↑,
65', Koci A. ↓, Lamacek M. ↑,
67', Lasak K. 🟨,
74', Hykel T. ↓, Dluhos D. ↑,
80', Durek P. ↓, Dressler P. ↑,
80', Jambor D. ↓, Sehnal P. ↑,
81', 🟨,
83', Kedron D. ↓, Volny F. ↑,
85', Jager T. ↓, Perina V. ↑,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 12th and 4th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hodonín won 1.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Hodonín has recorded 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 8:12 (averaging 0.8:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Hodonín against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 5:6 goals (averaging 1:1.2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	FK Frydek-Mistek	14	8	3	3	24:14	10	27
12	Hodonin	14	5	2	7	20:18	2	17

Last Results with these Odds

Hodonín - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 40.48%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Frýdek-Místek - the odds 2.64 are the expected chance of winning is 34.66%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Hodonín
Czech MSFL
03.10.26	Unie Hlubina - Hodonín	1:4 ✺
26.09.26	Hodonín - Vsetín	2:0 ✺
20.09.26	Zbrojovka Brno B - Hodonín	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Hodonín - Hranice	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Karviná B - Hodonín	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WWWLL
- FC Frýdek-Místek
Czech MSFL
03.10.26	Frýdek-Místek - Vrchovina Nové Město na Moravě	4:2 ✺
27.09.26	Polanka nad Odrou - Frýdek-Místek	1:0 ✺
19.09.26	Frýdek-Místek - Havířov	0:0 ✺
12.09.26	Uherský Brod - Frýdek-Místek	1:3 ✺
05.09.26	Frýdek-Místek - Uničov	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Czech MSFL
29.05.26	Frýdek-Místek - Hodonín	1:1
25.10.25	Hodonín - Frýdek-Místek	2:1
26.03.25	Hodonín - Frýdek-Místek	1:2
11.08.24	Frýdek-Místek - Hodonín	3:0
23.03.24	Hodonín - Frýdek-Místek	1:1
18.08.23	Frýdek-Místek - Hodonín	0:1
13.05.23	Frýdek-Místek - Hodonín	1:1

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