Match Info

Regionalliga Sudwest - Round 19

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


World	Onefootball


	Homburg		Freiburg II

	1	X	2
	1.65	4.25	4.05
	1.75	4.1	4.22
	1.87	3.99	3.32	Watch
	1.61	4.1	4.26
	1.69	4	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.89)	4.09 ↑ (3.8)	4.01 ↑ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Homburg
54.2%

Draw
22.7%

Freiburg II
23.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.5%

24.1%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.4%

24.5%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Homburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Homburg's performance.

Freiburg II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Homburg than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiburg II than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Homburg - Freiburg II Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
15', 1 - 0, Kober M. ⚽,
31', 1 - 1, Adomah B. ⚽,
40', 2 - 1, Jorg N. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
68', 3 - 1, Mendler M. ⚽,
77', 4 - 1, Mendler M. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 10 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Homburg won 1.

In recent matches, Homburg has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Freiburg II is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Homburg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Freiburg II has had a series of home games.

Homburg might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Homburg won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 25:24. (average 1.6:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Homburg won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.1:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC 08 Homburg
German Regionalliga Sudwest
22.11.25	Hessen Kassel - Homburg	0:0 ✺
15.11.25	Homburg - Sandhausen	0:1 ✺
08.11.25	Bayern Alzenau - Homburg	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Homburg - Stuttgarter Kickers	2:1 ✺
26.10.25	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehnerz - Homburg	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TLTWT
- Freiburg II
German Regionalliga Sudwest
23.11.25	Freiburg II - Freiberg	1:2 ✺
16.11.25	Freiburg II - Mainz II	2:1 ✺
07.11.25	Kickers Offenbach - Freiburg II	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Freiburg II - TSV Steinbach Haiger	3:2 ✺
25.10.25	Freiburg II - Astoria Walldorf	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

German Regionalliga Sudwest
10.08.25	Freiburg II - Homburg	5:3
09.03.25	Freiburg II - Homburg	3:2
30.08.24	Homburg - Freiburg II	2:2
29.05.21	Freiburg II - Homburg	0:1
17.02.21	Homburg - Freiburg II	1:3
22.02.20	Homburg - Freiburg II	3:0
14.08.19	Freiburg II - Homburg	2:2

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