Match Info

Date: 9 October 2022, Sunday


	Homburg		Ulm 1846

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.2	3.1
	2.1	3.45	2.95
	2.15	3.25	3.15
	2.28	3.29	3.18
	2.62	3.2	2.38
	2.24	3.3	3.13
	2.15	3.25	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↓ (2.63)	3.28 ↑ (3.26)	3.01 ↑ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Homburg
41.3%

Draw
28.1%

Ulm 1846
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

27.5%

38.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.5%

30.7%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Homburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Homburg's performance.

Ulm 1846 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ulm 1846 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Homburg than the current prediction. (-10.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Homburg that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ulm 1846 than the current prediction. (+12.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ulm 1846 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	37.5%	12.5%

Homburg - Ulm 1846 Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Homburg will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Ulm will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Homburg: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 2 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ 3. Liga).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Homburg won 2.

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Homburg won 6 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 22-21.

Including matches at home between the teams Homburg won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 14-14.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC 08 Homburg
German Regionalliga Sudwest
01.10.22	VfB Stuttgart II - Homburg	0:0 ✺
23.09.22	Homburg - Astoria Walldorf	4:0 ✺
17.09.22	Kickers Offenbach - Homburg	1:2 ✺
13.09.22	Homburg - Hessen Kassel	3:2 ✺
09.09.22	Homburg - Barockstadt Fulda-Lehnerz	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 TWWWL
- Ulm 1846
German Regionalliga Sudwest
30.09.22	Ulm 1846 - Balingen	1:1 ✺
24.09.22	VfR Aalen - Ulm 1846	1:1 ✺
18.09.22	Ulm 1846 - Freiberg	2:0 ✺
14.09.22	FSV Frankfurt - Ulm 1846	0:1 ✺
10.09.22	Ulm 1846 - Rot-Weiß Koblenz	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

German Regionalliga Sudwest
04.12.21	Ulm 1846 - Homburg	1:2
20.08.21	Homburg - Ulm 1846	3:3
12.06.21	Ulm 1846 - Homburg	0:2
30.01.21	Homburg - Ulm 1846	4:4
07.12.19	Ulm 1846 - Homburg	2:0
28.08.19	Homburg - Ulm 1846	1:5
08.03.19	Homburg - Ulm 1846	2:1

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