Match Info

Reserve League - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 7 April 2026, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	LPF Play, TNT Sports


	Independiente 2		Atlético de Rafaela 2

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.72	3.3	4.35
	1.78	3.58	4.22
	1.96	3.29	3.68	Watch
	1.75	3.1	4.2
	1.66	3.52	4.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↑ (1.54)	3.36 ↓ (3.69)	4.23 ↓ (5.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente 2
51.3%

Draw
27.1%

Atlético de Rafaela 2
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.7%

24.9%

15.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.3%

24.3%

15%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Independiente 2's form might have worsened.

Atlético de Rafaela 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlético de Rafaela 2's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente 2 than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente 2, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético de Rafaela 2 than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético de Rafaela 2, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Independiente 2 - Atlético de Rafaela 2 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
8', 0 - 1, ⚽,
26', 0 - 2, ⚽,
36', (Penalty Awarded),
42', 1 - 2, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
70', 2 - 2, ⚽,
71', 3 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 and 14).

In recent matches, Independiente 2 has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Atl de Rafaela 2's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Independiente 2 is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Independiente 2
Argentinian Reserve League
31.03.26	Platense 2 - Independiente 2	2:2 ✺
26.03.26	Independiente 2 - Quilmes 2	1:1 ✺
19.03.26	Estudiantes La Plata 2 - Independiente 2	1:0 ✺
02.03.26	Independiente 2 - Central Córdoba 2	5:0 ✺
18.02.26	San Martín de San Juan 2 - Independiente 2	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TTLWW
- Atlético de Rafaela 2
Argentinian Reserve League
31.03.26	Colón Santa Fe 2 - Atlético de Rafaela 2	3:1 ✺
26.03.26	Atlético de Rafaela 2 - Platense 2	0:1 ✺
17.03.26	Quilmes 2 - Atlético de Rafaela 2	2:1 ✺
04.03.26	Atlético de Rafaela 2 - Estudiantes La Plata 2	2:1 ✺
17.02.26	Central Córdoba 2 - Atlético de Rafaela 2	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LLLWL

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