Match Info

ASIA: ASIAN CUP - PLAY OFFS - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 3 February 2024, Saturday

Location: Education City Stadium (Al Rayyan)

Referee: Ning M. (Chn)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Paramount+
Brazil	ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Croatia	SportKlub
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
Malaysia	Astro
Portugal	Sport TV2
Serbia	SportKlub
Sweden	TV4
Ukraine	Sport 1


	Iran		Japan

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.5	1.8	Watch
	4.75	3.5	1.77	Watch
	4.65	3.55	1.8	Watch
	5	3.45	1.78
	5.18	3.55	1.78
	4.6	3.4	1.67	Watch
	5.05	3.52	1.75	Watch
	4.5	3.45	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.81 ↑ (3.8)	3.49 ↑ (3.24)	1.77 ↓ (1.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Iran
19.6%

Draw
27%

Japan
53.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.4%

28.6%

47%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.8%

28.1%

46.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Iran has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Japan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Japan's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Iran than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Iran, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Japan than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Japan, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.5%	22.7%	72.7%

Iran - Japan Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Iran will win (votes: 1 - 4.5%). Japan will win (votes: 16 - 72.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 22.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Japan: 54.1% – 91.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Beiranvand A. (G) 23. Rezaeian R. 13. Kanaanizadegan H. 4. Khalilzadeh S. 5. Mohammadi M. 8. Ebrahimi O. 6. Ezatolahi S. 7. Jahanbakhsh A. (C) 14. Ghoddos S. 21. Mohebi M. 20. Azmoun S.	23. Suzuki Z. (G) 16. Maikuma S. 4. Itakura K. 22. Tomiyasu T. 21. Ito H. 20. Kubo T. 6. Endo W. (C) 5. Morita H. 10. Doan R. 9. Ueda A. 25. Maeda D.
Substitutes
10. Ansarifard K. 11. Asadi R. 15. Cheshmi R. 25. Fallah S. 18. Ghayedi M. 17. Gholizadeh A. 3. Hajsafi E. 22. Hosseini H. (G) 26. Moghanlou S. 12. Niazmand P. (G) 16. Torabi M. 24. Yousefi A.	18. Asano T. 11. Hosoya M. 15. Machida K. 1. Maekawa D. (G) 8. Minamino T. 7. Mitoma K. 13. Nakamura K. 19. Nakayama Y. 26. Sano K. 2. Sugawara Y. 3. Taniguchi S. 24. Watanabe T.
Coaches
Ghalenoei A.	Moriyasu H.

Preview

Iran in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Japan is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match Japan is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Iran won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Iran
Asian Cup
31.01.24	Iran - Syria	2:1 penalties ✺
23.01.24	Iran - United Arab Emirates	2:1 ✺
19.01.24	Hong Kong - Iran	0:1 ✺
14.01.24	Iran - Palestine	4:1 ✺
Friendly
09.01.24	Indonesia - Iran	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWWWW
- Japan
Asian Cup
31.01.24	Bahrain - Japan	1:3 ✺
24.01.24	Japan - Indonesia	3:1 ✺
19.01.24	Iraq - Japan	2:1 ✺
14.01.24	Japan - Vietnam	4:2 ✺
Friendly
09.01.24	Japan - Jordan	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Asian Cup
28.01.19	Iran - Japan	0:3
Friendly
13.10.15	Iran - Japan	1:1

Iran - Japan: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide