Match Info

AFC Asian Cup U23 - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 20 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: King Abdullah Sports City (Jeddah)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Nova Sport
China	iQIYI, Migu, ZhiBo8
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Germany	Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Malaysia	Astro Arena Bola, Astro Go
Russia	TV Start
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
Vietnam	TV 360
International	Onefootball


	Japan U23		South Korea U23

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.12	2.72	3.95
	1.94	2.94	4.81	Watch
	1.95	2.75	3.9
	2.03	2.75	4.62	Watch
	2	2.62	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.06)	2.76 ↑ (2.73)	4.32 ↑ (3.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Japan U23
45.6%

Draw
33.2%

South Korea U23
21.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43.3%

32.7%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Japan U23 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

South Korea U23 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.7%	50%	8.3%

Japan U23 - South Korea U23 Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Japan U23 will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). South Korea U23 will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 54.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Japan U23 (votes: 3 - 42.9%). South Korea U23 (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - South Korea U23 (2.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - South Korea U23 (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Japan U23 (votes: 3 - 33.3%). South Korea U23 (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Araki R. (G) Gamba Osaka 16. Koizumi K. 4. Nagano S. Gainare Tottori 5. Ichihara R. (C) Omiya Ardija 2. Umeki R. Imabari 17. Shimamoto Y. Shimizu S-Pulse 6. Ogura K. 18. Kume H. 10. Sato R. Okayama 13. Ishibashi S. Shonan Bellmare 19. Michiwaki Y. SK Beveren	21. Hong Sung-min (G) 19. Lee Geon-hee Suwon Bluewings 5. Lee Hyun-Yong 2. Kang Min-Jun Pohang 3. Bae Hyun-Seo Seoul 7. Kang Seong-Jin Seoul 23. Shin Min-Ha Gangwon 8. Kim Dong-Jin (C) Pohang 17. Kim Yong-Hak Portimonense 15. Baek Ga-On Busan 22. Jang Seok-Hwan Suwon Bluewings
Substitutes
20. Furuya S. Tokyo International University 12. Hamasaki T. (G) 7. Ishiwatari N. Iwaki 14. Kawai T. Iwata 1. Kobayashi M. (G) FC Tokyo 15. Mori S. Nagoya Grampus 9. Nwadike Uchebrian S. Toin University 22. Okabe H. Toyo University 8. Ozeki Y. Kawasaki Frontale 21. Sekitomi K. Yokohama F. Marinos 3. Tsuchiya K. Kawasaki Frontale 11. Yokoyama Y. Cerezo Osaka	12. Hwang Jae-yun (G) Suwon FC 11. Jeong J. Gwangju FC 18. Jeong Jae-sang Daegu 4. Jo Hyun-Tae Gangwon 14. Jung Seung-Bae Suwon FC 13. Kim Do-Hyun Gangwon 16. Kim Han-Seo Daejeon 9. Kim T. 6. Lee Chan-Wook Gimcheon Sangmu 1. Moon Hyeon-Ho (G) Gimcheon Sangmu 20. Park Jun-seo Hwaseong

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, Koizumi K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Kim Yong-Hak ↓, Jung Seung-Bae ↑,
58', Baek Ga-On ↓, Kim T. ↑,
65', Michiwaki Y. ↓, Nwadike Uchebrian S. ↑,
65', Kume H. ↓, Furuya S. ↑,
65', Ishibashi S. ↓, Yokoyama Y. ↑,
66', Ichihara R. ↓, Okabe H. ↑,
70', Ogura K. 🟨,
81', Bae Hyun-Seo ↓, Lee Chan-Wook ↑,
84', Shimamoto Y. ↓, Ishiwatari N. ↑,
88', Kang Seong-Jin ↓, Jeong J. ↑,
89', Kim Dong-Jin ↓, Jeong Jae-sang ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Japan U23 won 2.

Japan U23 has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

South Korea U23 may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Japan U23 is considered a favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Japan U23 won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Japan U23
AFC Asian Cup U23
16.01.26	Japan U23 - Jordan U23	2:1 penalties ✺
13.01.26	Japan U23 - Qatar U23	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	United Arab Emirates U23 - Japan U23	0:3 ✺
07.01.26	Japan U23 - Syria U23	5:0 ✺
Friendly
01.01.26	Jordan U23 - Japan U23	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWWWT
- South Korea U23
AFC Asian Cup U23
17.01.26	Australia U23 - South Korea U23	1:2 ✺
13.01.26	Uzbekistan U23 - South Korea U23	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	Lebanon U23 - South Korea U23	2:4 ✺
07.01.26	South Korea U23 - Iran U23	0:0 ✺
Friendly
10.10.25	Saudi Arabia U23 - South Korea U23	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

AFC Asian Cup U23
22.04.24	Japan U23 - South Korea U23	0:1
Asian Games Football
07.10.23	South Korea U23 - Japan U23	2:1
AFC Asian Cup U23
12.06.22	South Korea U23 - Japan U23	0:3
Asian Games Football
01.09.18	South Korea U23 - Japan U23	2:1 ET
AFC Asian Cup U23
30.01.16	South Korea U23 - Japan U23	2:3
Asian Games Football
28.09.14	South Korea U23 - Japan U23	1:0

Japan U23 - South Korea U23: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide