Match Info

UEFA Nations League - League C - Round 3

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday

Location: Astana Arena (Astana)

Referee: Barbu M. (Rou)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN
Belarus	Sport TV
Bolivia	ESPN 2
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Estonia	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	UEFA TV
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Iceland	Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Vision+
Indonesia	GTV, K-Vision
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Qazsport
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	ART Sport 1
Lithuania	Go3 Extra Sports
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Moldova	Moldova 1
Mongolia	Premier Sports 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 2, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1, Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
South-africa	SuperSport Premier League
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fox Soccer Plus, FOX Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter


	Kazakhstan		Moldova

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.20	4.75
	1.85	3.10	4.33
	1.89	3.20	4.60
	1.92	3.38	4.65
	1.95	3.19	4.42	Watch
	1.87	3.30	4.55
	1.87	3.23	4.80	Watch
	1.88	3.10	4.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.7)	3.21 ↓ (3.61)	4.59 ↓ (5.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kazakhstan
50.1%

Draw
29.4%

Moldova
20.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.4%

26.1%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kazakhstan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kazakhstan's form might have worsened.

Moldova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.6%	13.9%	5.6%

Kazakhstan - Moldova Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Kazakhstan (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (1.51) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (2.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Kazakhstan will win (29 of 35 users predict this - 82.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.37% – 95.35%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Zarutskiy A. (G) Aktobe 23. Erlanov T. Aktobe 3. Alip N. Zenit St Petersburg 11. Vorogovskiy Y. FC Astana 13. Mrynskiy A. Kairat Almaty 18. Karaman D. FC Astana 9. Islamkhan B. (C) FC Astana 20. Orazov R. Yelimay Semey 21. Astanov E. Ordabasy 19. Karimov R. FC Astana 7. Kenzhebek G. Akhmat Grozny	12. Celeadnic D. (G) Kyzylzhar 8. Revenco I. Petrocub Hincesti 4. Baboglo V. (C) Karpaty Lviv 18. Iovu I. Dundee Utd 6. Gherasimencov M. Vancouver Whitecaps 2. Reabciuk O. Anderlecht 14. Fratea V. Sheriff Tiraspol 22. Rata V. Campionii Arges 9. Perciun S. Ascoli 15. Popescu P. Petrocub Hincesti 20. Clescenco N. Kilmarnock
Substitutes
8. Amir Z. Ordabasy 12. Anarbekov T. (G) Kairat Almaty 17. Basmanov S. FC Astana 5. Kasabulat D. Kairat Almaty 6. Kasym A. FC Astana 2. Maliy S. Ordabasy 1. Shayzada B. (G) Ordabasy 10. Shushenachev A. Aktobe 22. Tapalov E. Kairat Almaty 15. Tuyakbaev A. Kairat Almaty 4. Zhagorov N. Tobol 14. Zhukov G. Aktobe	10. Bodisteanu S. FC Botosani 13. Cojocari S. Petrocub Hincesti 5. Cucos C. Petrocub Hincesti 17. David O. Petrocub Hincesti 19. Dumbravanu D. Voluntari 16. Forov D. Sheriff Tiraspol 23. Kozhukhar A. (G) Asia Talas 21. Mandricenco D. Dinamo Batumi 7. Motpan N. SKA Khabarovsk 3. Stefan M. Din. Samarkand 11. Stina V. Kapaz 1. Timbur E. (G) Sheriff Tiraspol
Coaches
van 't Schip J.	Popescu L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45+1', 0 - 1, Clescenco N. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Orazov R. ↓, Tapalov E. ↑,
46', Astanov E. ↓, Tuyakbaev A. ↑,
46', Fratea V. ↓, Motpan N. ↑,
50', 0 - 2, Popescu P. ⚽, Perciun S. (A),
59', Clescenco N. ↓, Stina V. ↑,
59', Karimov R. ↓, Shushenachev A. ↑,
64', 1 - 2, Alip N. ⚽, Islamkhan B. (A),
66', Mrynskiy A. ↓, Zhagorov N. ↑,
74', Erlanov T. ↓, Maliy S. ↑,
75', Reabciuk O. ↓, Stefan M. ↑,
80', Kenzhebek G. 🟨,
86', Revenco I. ↓, David O. ↑,
86', Rata V. ↓, Dumbravanu D. ↑,
89', Vorogovskiy Y. 🟨,

Preview

Kazakhstan is ranked FIFA: 111., and Moldova is ranked FIFA: 159..

Bookmakers give the edge to Kazakhstan for this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Kazakhstan has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 8:4 (averaging 1.6:0.8 goals per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kazakhstan
UEFA Nations League
29.09.26	Slovakia - Kazakhstan	2:1 ✺
26.09.26	Faroe Islands - Kazakhstan	1:1 ✺
Friendly
09.06.26	Hungary - Kazakhstan	3:1 ✺
06.06.26	Armenia - Kazakhstan	1:1 ✺
FIFA Series
31.03.26	Kazakhstan - Comoros	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LTLTW
- Moldova
UEFA Nations League
29.09.26	Moldova - Faroe Islands	1:1 ✺
26.09.26	Slovakia - Moldova	2:0 ✺
Friendly
09.06.26	Armenia - Moldova	1:1 ✺
05.06.26	Moldova - Bulgaria	2:2 ✺
30.03.26	Cyprus - Moldova	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TLTTL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Nations League
29.03.22	Kazakhstan - Moldova	1:1 penalties
24.03.22	Moldova - Kazakhstan	1:2
Friendly
21.02.19	Kazakhstan - Moldova	1:0
18.02.15	Moldova - Kazakhstan	1:1
06.02.13	Moldova - Kazakhstan	1:3

Kazakhstan - Moldova: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide