Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 - Round 3

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday


	Lealtad		Sámano

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.25	4.35
	1.77	3.33	4.49
	1.88	3.19	4.25	Watch
	1.79	3.36	4.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (1.95)	3.28 ↑ (3.2)	4.38 ↑ (3.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lealtad
51.1%

Draw
28%

Sámano
21%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.7%

28.5%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.7%

26.1%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lealtad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Sámano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lealtad than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lealtad that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sámano than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sámano could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lealtad - Sámano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, Castillo Marcilla A. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
56', 1 - 1, ⚽,
72', 2 - 1, ⚽,
90+5', 2 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

Lealtad has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sámano is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Sámano may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Lealtad has had a series of away games.

Recently, Sámano has had a series of home games.

In this match, Lealtad is the team to beat.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lealtad
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
14.09.25	Sarriana - Lealtad	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Lealtad - Numancia	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
20.08.25	Gijón Industrial - Lealtad	0:0 ✺
13.08.25	Avilés Stadium - Lealtad	1:0 ✺
06.08.25	Covadonga - Lealtad	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LTTLW
- UD Sámano
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
13.09.25	Sámano - Real Oviedo B	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
19.08.25	Sámano - Gimnástica de Torrelavega	1:2 ✺
14.08.25	Castro - Sámano	1:0 ✺
09.08.25	Sámano - Vimenor	3:1 ✺
30.07.25	Sámano - Arenas Club de Getxo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLLWT

Lealtad - Sámano: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide