Match Info

Regionalliga Sudwest - Round 8

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Mainz II		Homburg

	1	X	2
	2.48	3.7	2.38
	2.54	3.8	2.52
	2.47	3.62	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↑ (2.19)	3.71 ↓ (3.74)	2.41 ↓ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mainz II
36.9%

Draw
24.9%

Homburg
38.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

24.3%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

23.3%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Homburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz II than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mainz II, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Homburg than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Homburg, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Mainz II - Homburg Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
40', 1 - 0, Malli Y. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
68', 2 - 0, Konig R. ⚽,
72', 2 - 1, Kober M. ⚽,
90+4', 2 - 2, Kober M. ⚽,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 6 and 8)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz II won 1.

Mainz II is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Homburg has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Mainz II may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Mainz II won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 24:26. (average 1.5:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Mainz II won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 1.3:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz II
German Regionalliga Sudwest
13.09.25	Bayern Alzenau - Mainz II	1:3 ✺
06.09.25	Mainz II - Barockstadt Fulda-Lehnerz	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	TSV Steinbach Haiger - Mainz II	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Mainz II - Stuttgarter Kickers	3:0 ✺
16.08.25	Mainz II - Kickers Offenbach	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.2 WTTWW
- FC 08 Homburg
German Regionalliga Sudwest
13.09.25	Homburg - TSV Steinbach Haiger	1:1 ✺
05.09.25	Kickers Offenbach - Homburg	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Homburg - Astoria Walldorf	1:3 ✺
23.08.25	Balingen - Homburg	1:4 ✺
20.08.25	Homburg - Bahlinger	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TTLWW

Latest Head to Head

German Regionalliga Sudwest
08.12.24	Homburg - Mainz II	4:0
11.08.24	Mainz II - Homburg	0:0
05.05.24	Homburg - Mainz II	1:2
28.10.23	Mainz II - Homburg	2:4
30.04.23	Mainz II - Homburg	2:2
21.10.22	Homburg - Mainz II	0:3
26.02.22	Homburg - Mainz II	3:2

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