Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 9 - Round 22

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday


	Marbellí		Atlético Porcuna

	1	X	2
	1.72	3.2	4.55
	1.76	3.31	4.58
	1.76	3.35	4.58
	1.75	3.2	4.4
	1.7	3.24	4.9
	1.76	3.33	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.73)	3.27 ↓ (3.31)	4.56 ↑ (4.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marbellí
52.2%

Draw
27.8%

Atlético Porcuna
20%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.5%

27.5%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.6%

29.1%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marbellí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

The chances for Atlético Porcuna have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marbellí than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Porcuna than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Marbellí - Atlético Porcuna Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90', 1 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 7 and 9).

Recent performances by Marbellí have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Atlético Porcuna is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Marbellí is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Marbellí won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Marbelli	5	4	1	0	8:3	5	13
10	Atletico de Porcuna	5	2	0	3	6:14	-8	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Marbellí
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 9
01.02.26	Marbellí - El Palo	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	UD San Pedro - Marbellí	1:0 ✺
18.01.26	Marbellí - Alhaurino	2:1 ✺
11.01.26	Marbellí - Torredonjimeno	3:0 ✺
04.01.26	Granada B - Marbellí	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TLWWT
- Atlético Porcuna
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 9
01.02.26	Arenas Armilla - Atlético Porcuna	0:2 ✺
25.01.26	Atlético Porcuna - Churriana de la Vega	0:0 ✺
18.01.26	Torreperogil - Atlético Porcuna	0:3 ✺
11.01.26	Atlético Porcuna - Motril	1:0 ✺
03.01.26	Torre Del Mar - Atlético Porcuna	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.2 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 9
05.10.25	Atlético Porcuna - Marbellí	1:0

Marbellí - Atlético Porcuna: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide