Match Info

PORTUGAL: Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 15

Date: 19 January 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Mortágua		Arronches Benfica

	1	X	2
	2	2.85	3.6
	2.05	2.9	3.75
	2.02	3.1	3.82
	2.05	2.9	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.75)	2.94 ↑ (2.82)	3.73 ↑ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mortágua
44.7%

Draw
30.9%

Arronches Benfica
24.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

32.9%

32.1%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.8%

32.9%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mortágua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mortágua's performance.

Arronches Benfica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arronches Benfica might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mortágua than the current prediction. (-10.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mortágua that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arronches Benfica than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arronches Benfica could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mortágua - Arronches Benfica Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
89', 🟥,

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mortágua FC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
05.01.25	Fatima - Mortágua	0:0 ✺
21.12.24	Elvas - Mortágua	1:0 ✺
15.12.24	Mortágua - Pero Pinheiro	1:0 ✺
08.12.24	Alverca B - Mortágua	1:2 ✺
01.12.24	Mortágua - Sertanense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 TLWWT
- Arronches Benfica
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
12.01.25	Arronches Benfica - Pombal	2:2 ✺
05.01.25	Elvas - Arronches Benfica	0:0 ✺
15.12.24	Arronches Benfica - Fatima	1:0 ✺
08.12.24	Pero Pinheiro - Arronches Benfica	0:0 ✺
30.11.24	Arronches Benfica - Alverca B	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
25.08.24	Arronches Benfica - Mortágua	0:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
12.02.23	Mortágua - Arronches Benfica	1:1

Mortágua - Arronches Benfica

Match Info

Current Win Probability

Mortágua - Arronches Benfica Predictions

Key Events of the Match

Form

Latest Head to Head

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