Match Info

Serie D - Group F - Round 8

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday


	Ostia Mare		Fossombrone

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.30	3.31	Watch
	2.06	3.26	3.26
	2.06	3.26	3.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (2.01)	3.27 ↓ (3.35)	3.28 ↓ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ostia Mare
44.3%

Draw
27.9%

Fossombrone
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.6%

27.4%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

25.5%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ostia Mare has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Fossombrone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ostia Mare than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fossombrone than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Ostia Mare - Fossombrone Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Vianni S. (Pen),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
57', 2 - 0, ⚽,
82', 3 - 0, ⚽,
90+22', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 13 in the zone Serie D ~ Group F (Play Out: )).

Ostia Mare is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Fossombrone's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Fossombrone may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Fossombrone has had a series of home games.

Ostia Mare will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Ostia Mare will win today's game, with odds of 2.06.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Ostia Mare Lido Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group F
05.10.25	Ostia Mare - Sora	3:1 ✺
28.09.25	Atletico Ascoli - Ostia Mare	0:2 ✺
24.09.25	Ostia Mare - Vigor Senigallia	1:0 ✺
21.09.25	San Marino Calcio - Ostia Mare	1:2 ✺
07.09.25	Ancona - Ostia Mare	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 WWWWW
- FC Fossombrone
Italian Serie D - Group F
12.10.25	Fossombrone - Teramo	0:1 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie D
08.10.25	Fossombrone - Ancona	0:1 penalties ✺
Italian Serie D - Group F
05.10.25	Fossombrone - Vigor Senigallia	1:2 ✺
28.09.25	Sora - Fossombrone	0:0 ✺
24.09.25	Fossombrone - Giulianova	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLLTT

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