Match Info

Serie A Women - Round 4

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadio Ennio Tardini (Parma) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Papi C. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Italy	18:00	DAZN Italia


	Parma		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	3.50	3.30	1.87
	3.40	3.35	1.91	Watch
	3.54	3.52	2.00
	4.12	3.66	1.81	Watch
	3.45	3.35	1.98
	3.46	3.57	2.00	Watch
	3.45	3.35	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.56 ↑ (3.4)	3.44 ↑ (3.4)	1.92 ↑ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Parma
25.7%

Draw
26.6%

Fiorentina
47.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

26.4%

47.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.6%

48.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Parma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Parma than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Parma - Fiorentina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Ceasar C. (G) 13. Merlo B. 5. Sharts H. 20. Szymaszek W. 18. Dominguez L. 7. Rabot I. 29. Uffren M. (C) 2. Lobo I. 26. Ekic E. 21. Cavallin C. 17. Distefano G.	1. Fiskerstrand C. (G) 44. Faerge E. 4. Bergsvand G. 19. Correia C. 3. Johansen O. 21. Severini E. (C) 6. Cortes M. 7. Tryggvadottir K. 14. Bredgaard S. 51. Omarsdottir I. 18. Snerle E.
Substitutes
25. Ambrosi C. 42. Bowie T. 22. Copetti M. (G) 24. Fierro F. (G) 28. Georgsdottir B. 27. Gueguen M. 11. Healy E. 6. Jorde J. 8. Pondini G. 77. Sondergard S. 23. Tomaselli M. 16. Zappettini S.	28. Bartalini V. (G) 23. Bettineschi G. (G) 79. Cerrato A. 11. Chacon I. 26. Cherubini M. 85. Filangeri M. 8. Hurtig L. 16. Lombardi E. 20. Orsi B. 5. Tortelli A. 22. Van Der Zanden I. 2. Woldvik E.
Coaches
Sottili S.	Pinones-Arce P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', Uffren M. ↓, Tomaselli M. ↑,
28', 1 - 0, Distefano G. ⚽, Lobo I. (A),
32', Bredgaard S. 🟨,
45+9', 1 - 1, Severini E. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', 1 - 2, Tryggvadottir K. ⚽,
56', Faerge E. ↓, Orsi B. ↑,
66', Severini E. 🟨,
72', Correia C. ↓, Van Der Zanden I. ↑,
72', Omarsdottir I. ↓, Chacon I. ↑,
73', Cavallin C. ↓, Bowie T. ↑,
73', Ekic E. ↓, Healy E. ↑,
79', Lobo I. ↓, Georgsdottir B. ↑,
79', Distefano G. ↓, Sondergard S. ↑,
82', Snerle E. ↓, Cerrato A. ↑,
82', Bredgaard S. ↓, Tortelli A. ↑,

Preview

A team fighting near the bottom hosts a mid-table side in a match full of urgency (ranked 11th and 7th).

Parma is on a difficult losing run (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Fiorentina has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Fiorentina could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Parma has faced a series of away games on the road.

In this matchup, Fiorentina is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Parma has recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:7 (averaging 0.5:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Parma against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 1:5 goals (averaging 0.5:2.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Fiorentina W	4	2	1	1	5:4	1	7
11	Parma W	4	0	1	3	2:7	-5	1

Outrights of Italian Serie A Women for now

Fiorentina W: 5.59% Parma W: 0.84%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Parma Women
Italian Serie A Women
18.10.26	Inter Milan - Parma	3:0 ✺
03.10.26	Parma - Ternana	1:2 ✺
26.09.26	Lazio - Parma	0:0 ✺
Italian Serie A Cup Women
06.09.26	Napoli - Parma	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Lazio - Parma	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LLTLL
- Fiorentina Women FC
Italian Serie A Women
17.10.26	Como - Fiorentina	1:1 ✺
03.10.26	Fiorentina - Sassuolo	2:0 ✺
27.09.26	Inter Milan - Fiorentina	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie A Cup Women
05.09.26	Roma - Fiorentina	3:0 ✺
30.08.26	Fiorentina - Ternana	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A Women
22.03.26	Fiorentina - Parma	0:0
15.11.25	Parma - Fiorentina	1:1
10.12.22	Parma - Fiorentina	0:4
18.09.22	Fiorentina - Parma	2:1

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