Match Info

Primera Divisió - Round 6

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadi Nacional (Andorra la Vella) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Austria	11:00	DAZN
Brazil	07:00	DAZN Brasil
Canada	06:00	DAZN Canada
France	11:00	DAZN France
Germany	11:00	DAZN Deutsch
Japan	19:00	DAZN Japan
New Zealand	23:00	DAZN New Zealand
Portugal	10:00	DAZN / App
Spain	11:00	DAZN Espana
Switzerland	11:00	DAZN Switzerland
Usa	06:00	DAZN USA
International	10:00	Twitch


	Penya Encarnada		Esperança

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.25	2
	3.27	3.3	2.04
	3.21	3.51	2.02	Watch
	3.15	3.25	2
	2.98	3.83	2.12
	3.2	3.3	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.17 ↑ (2)	3.41 ↓ (3.6)	2.03 ↓ (3.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penya Encarnada
28.7%

Draw
26.7%

Esperança
44.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45.8%

25.5%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.9%

24.4%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penya Encarnada has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Penya Encarnada's form might have worsened.

Esperança has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Esperança's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penya Encarnada than the current prediction. (+19.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Penya Encarnada, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Esperança than the current prediction. (-17.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Esperança, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Penya Encarnada - Esperança Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 7th and 6th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Penya won 5.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 9 head-to-head meetings, Penya has recorded 9 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 20:5 (averaging 2.2:0.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Penya against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 13:4 goals (averaging 2.6:0.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Esperanca	6	2	2	2	10:7	3	8
8	Penya	6	1	2	3	5:11	-6	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Penya Encarnada
Andorra Primera Divisio
18.10.26	Casa de Portugal - Penya Encarnada	3:0 ✺
11.10.26	Penya Encarnada - Sporting Escaldes	2:0 ✺
19.09.26	Carroi - Penya Encarnada	2:2 ✺
13.09.26	FC Santa Coloma - Penya Encarnada	4:0 ✺
06.09.26	Penya Encarnada - Atlètic Escaldes	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LWTLT
- CF Esperança Andorra
Andorra Primera Divisio
18.10.26	Esperança - FC Santa Coloma	1:2 ✺
11.10.26	Atlètic Escaldes - Esperança	1:1 ✺
20.09.26	Esperança - Ordino	4:0 ✺
13.09.26	Ràngers - Esperança	2:1 ✺
06.09.26	Esperança - Inter Escaldes	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.2 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Andorra Primera Divisio
13.04.26	Esperança - Penya Encarnada	0:1
01.02.26	Penya Encarnada - Esperança	1:0
09.11.25	Esperança - Penya Encarnada	0:1
27.04.25	Penya Encarnada - Esperança	4:1
16.02.25	Esperança - Penya Encarnada	1:2
29.09.24	Penya Encarnada - Esperança	4:1
05.05.24	Penya Encarnada - Esperança	3:2

Penya Encarnada - Esperança