Match Info

Asian Cup - Qualification - Third round - Round 2

Date: 10 June 2025, Tuesday

Location: Rizal Memorial Stadium (Manila)

Where to Watch on TV:


Philippines	Cignal Play, One Sports, One Sports+
Tajikistan	Varzish Sport


	Philippines		Tajikistan

	1	X	2
	2.45	2.9	2.8
	2.52	2.98	2.98
	2.53	2.93	3.03	Watch
	2.45	3.1	2.62
	2.61	3.36	2.69
	2.52	2.98	2.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↓ (2.6)	3.04 ↓ (3.15)	2.85 ↑ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Philippines
36.9%

Draw
30.5%

Tajikistan
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.8%

29.5%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Philippines has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Tajikistan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	13.3%	20%

Philippines - Tajikistan Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Philippines will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%). Tajikistan will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Philippines: 54% – 99.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Philippines will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mendoza K. (G) Persib Bandung 14. Baccay J. Odds BK 18. Bailey Z. New Mexico 17. Holtmann G. Bochum 10. Kristensen B. KFUM Oslo 5. Nyholm J. Prachuap 8. Ott Ma. (C) Terengganu 6. Reyes S. Gutersloh 11. Schneider R. Winterthur 4. Tabinas J. Buriram United F.C. 3. Tabinas P. Vukovar 1991	1. Yatimov R. (G) FK Rostov 8. Dzhuraboev A. Istiqlol Dushanbe 2. Dzhuraboev Z. Sogdiana 13. Kamolov A. Gol Gohar 6. Khanonov V. Sepahan 15. Mabatshoev S. Kapaz 19. Nazarov A. (C) Istiqlol Dushanbe 17. Pandzhshanbe E. Sogdiana 5. Safarov M. Din. Samarkand 22. Samiev S. Xorazm Urganch 7. Umarbaev P. Lok. Plovdiv
Substitutes
12. Aguinaldo A. Rayong FC 22. Carino D. Azkals 13. Demuynck D. Waregem 9. Gayoso J. Phnom Penh Crown 15. Guimaraes N. (G) Philippines Navy 16. Kammeraad Q. (G) Taguig 7. Leipold A. FK Pardubice 20. Lucero J. Rayong FC 23. Rontini C. Nong Bua Pitchaya 21. Rublico S. Atl. Madrid 2. Ugelvik A. Brattvag 19. Woods S. Boeung Ket	23. Baklov O. (G) Ufa 14. Boboev S. Ravshan Kulob 10. Burizod A. Istiqlol Dushanbe 18. Elmurodov S. Khujand 16. Gafforov S. (G) Barkchi Hisor 3. Islomov T. Istiqlol Dushanbe 21. Kakhorov M. 12. Karimov M. Samgurali 11. Khamrokulov N. Vakhsh 4. Kurbonov S. 20. Olimzoda F. Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 9. Sharipov D. Shortan Guzor
Coaches
Cuadrat C.	Shekiladze G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
9', Umarbaev P. 🟨,
26', Pandzhshanbe E. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Kristensen B. ⚽,
29', Holtmann G. 🟨,
30', 1 - 1, Mabatshoev S. ⚽,
34', Dzhuraboev A. 🟨,
37', Mabatshoev S. 🟨,
41', Baccay J. 🟨,
42', 1 - 2, Umarbaev P. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Tabinas P. 🟨,
68', Mabatshoev S. ↓, Olimzoda F. ↑,
70', Nyholm J. ↓, Aguinaldo A. ↑,
73', Umarbaev P. ↓, Khamrokulov N. ↑,
79', 2 - 2, Kristensen B. ⚽,
80', Ott Ma. 🟨,
83', Schneider R. 🟨,
83', Samiev S. 🟨,
84', Khanonov V. 🟨,
84', Aguinaldo A. 🟨,
89', Holtmann G. ↓, Demuynck D. ↑,
89', Ott Ma. ↓, Rontini C. ↑,
90+1', Samiev S. ↓, Kurbonov S. ↑,
90+3', Olimzoda F. 🟨,

Preview

Tajikistan may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Philippines won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:7. (average 1.8:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Philippines
Asian Cup
25.03.25	Philippines - Maldives	4:1 ✺
ASEAN Championship
30.12.24	Thailand - Philippines	3:1 ET ✺
27.12.24	Philippines - Thailand	2:1 ✺
21.12.24	Indonesia - Philippines	0:1 ✺
18.12.24	Philippines - Vietnam	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 32.7 WLWWT
- Tajikistan
Friendly
05.06.25	Cambodia - Tajikistan	1:2 ✺
Asian Cup
25.03.25	Tajikistan - Timor-Leste	1:0 ✺
Friendly
20.03.25	Tajikistan - Belarus	0:5 ✺
19.11.24	Tajikistan - Afghanistan	3:1 ✺
13.11.24	Tajikistan - Nepal	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Kings Cup Thailand
14.10.24	Tajikistan - Philippines	0:3
Merdeka Cup
08.09.24	Tajikistan - Philippines	1:0 penalties
Bangabandhu Gold Cup
09.10.18	Philippines - Tajikistan	0:2
Asian Cup
27.03.18	Philippines - Tajikistan	2:1
13.06.17	Tajikistan - Philippines	3:4

Philippines - Tajikistan: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide