Match Info

ITALY: SERIE D - GROUP F - ROUND 30

Date: 6 April 2023, Thursday


	Pineto		Tolentino

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.5	5.5
	1.57	3.5	5.03
	1.53	3.68	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.38)	3.56 ↓ (3.98)	5.58 ↓ (6.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pineto
58.4%

Draw
25.4%

Tolentino
16.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64%

22.2%

13.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.4%

20.8%

13%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pineto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pineto's form might have worsened.

Tolentino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pineto than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pineto, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tolentino than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Pineto won 3.

Pineto in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Tolentino is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Pineto is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Pineto to win the game is with odds 1.57.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Pineto won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 15-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Pineto won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASD Pineto Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group F
02.04.23	Avezzano - Pineto	0:1 ✺
19.03.23	Nuova Florida - Pineto	1:3 ✺
12.03.23	Pineto - Notaresco	1:0 ✺
05.03.23	Chieti - Pineto	0:0 ✺
26.02.23	Pineto - Cynthialbalonga	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWWTW
- US Tolentino
Italian Serie D - Group F
02.04.23	Tolentino - Nuova Florida	0:1 ✺
19.03.23	Notaresco - Tolentino	0:0 ✺
12.03.23	Tolentino - Chieti	0:1 ✺
05.03.23	Cynthialbalonga - Tolentino	1:1 ✺
26.02.23	Tolentino - Montegiorgio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Coppa Italia Serie D
07.12.22	Pineto - Tolentino	5:1
Italian Serie D - Group F
27.11.22	Tolentino - Pineto	0:2
15.05.22	Tolentino - Pineto	1:3
22.12.21	Pineto - Tolentino	0:1
28.03.21	Pineto - Tolentino	1:2
01.11.20	Tolentino - Pineto	0:0
23.02.20	Pineto - Tolentino	1:1

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