Match Info

Queensland Premier League - Round 21

Date: 16 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Underwood Park (Rochedale)


	Rochedale Rovers		Logan Lightning

	1	X	2
	1.39	4.8	5.25
	1.38	4.95	5.35
	1.32	5.57	6.74
	1.55	4.07	5.40	Watch
	1.33	5.15	6.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.64)	4.91 ↑ (4)	5.85 ↑ (4.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rochedale Rovers
65.7%

Draw
18.7%

Logan Lightning
15.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

22.6%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.4%

22.7%

22.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rochedale Rovers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rochedale Rovers's performance.

Logan Lightning has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Logan Lightning might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rochedale Rovers than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rochedale Rovers that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Logan Lightning than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Logan Lightning could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Rochedale Rovers - Logan Lightning Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, ⚽,
24', 1 - 1, ⚽,
45+4', 2 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', 3 - 1, ⚽,
84', 3 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Queensland Premier League (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rochedale Rovers won 4.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Rochedale Rovers may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Rochedale Rovers is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Rochedale Rovers won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:5. (average 1.9:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Rochedale Rovers won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:3. (average 2.5:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rochedale Rovers
Australian Queensland Premier League
08.08.25	Broadbeach United - Rochedale Rovers	1:1 ✺
02.08.25	Rochedale Rovers - Brisbane Strikers	2:1 ✺
29.07.25	Magic United - Rochedale Rovers	2:1 ✺
19.07.25	Rochedale Rovers - Magic United	1:4 ✺
11.07.25	Rochedale Rovers - Redlands United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TWLLT
- Logan Lightning
Australian Queensland Premier League
03.08.25	Magic United - Logan Lightning	5:0 ✺
19.07.25	Logan Lightning - Redlands United	3:1 ✺
12.07.25	South West Queensland Thunder - Logan Lightning	1:1 ✺
04.07.25	Logan Lightning - Holland Park Hawks	0:1 ✺
28.06.25	Redlands United - Logan Lightning	0:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
20.01.18	Rochedale Rovers - Logan Lightning	3:1
Australian Brisbane Premier League
15.07.17	Rochedale Rovers - Logan Lightning	3:0
10.06.17	Logan Lightning - Rochedale Rovers	2:3
25.06.16	Logan Lightning - Rochedale Rovers	0:0
19.03.16	Rochedale Rovers - Logan Lightning	2:1
20.06.15	Rochedale Rovers - Logan Lightning	2:1

Rochedale Rovers - Logan Lightning: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide