Match Info

Serie D - Group H - Round 11

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday


	Sarnese		Heraclea

	1	X	2
	1.97	3.59	3.25	Watch
	2.52	2.93	2.67
	2	3.5	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (1.91)	3.34 ↓ (3.6)	3.06 ↓ (3.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarnese
42.5%

Draw
27.5%

Heraclea
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.1%

25.5%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

26.1%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarnese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sarnese's form might have worsened.

Heraclea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarnese than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sarnese, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heraclea than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Sarnese - Heraclea Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', 0 - 1, Sanchez J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
82', 🟥,
90', 🟥,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group H (Play Offs: )).

Sarnese is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Heraclea is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Sarnese is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarnese
Italian Serie D - Group H
02.11.25	Gravina - Sarnese	5:1 ✺
26.10.25	Sarnese - Città di Fasano	1:1 ✺
19.10.25	Paganese - Sarnese	2:1 ✺
12.10.25	Sarnese - Real Normanna	0:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie D
08.10.25	Martina Calcio - Sarnese	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLTL
- Heraclea Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group H
02.11.25	Heraclea - Fidelis Andria	1:1 ✺
26.10.25	Virtus Francavilla - Heraclea	0:1 ✺
19.10.25	Heraclea - Nardo	2:0 ✺
12.10.25	Acerrana - Heraclea	0:1 ✺
05.10.25	Nola - Heraclea	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.9 TWWWW

Sarnese - Heraclea: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide