Match Info

Premier League - Round 6

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Tonota		Police XI

	1	X	2
	2.85	2.70	2.45
	2.95	2.68	2.45
	2.52	2.71	2.89
	2.87	2.78	2.59	Watch
	2.45	2.65	2.85
	2.83	2.69	2.52
	2.95	2.70	2.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.77 ↑ (2.21)	2.7 ↓ (2.89)	2.6 ↓ (3.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tonota
32.3%

Draw
33.2%

Police XI
34.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.8%

31.2%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6%

29.9%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tonota has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tonota's form might have worsened.

Police XI has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Police XI's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tonota than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tonota, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Police XI than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Police XI, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)

Preview

One of the standout fixtures of the round, featuring two top-tier sides (ranked 1st in the Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification: ) and 3rd).

Tonota has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Police XI has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Police XI may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Tonota holding a narrow advantage.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Tonota	6	4	2	0	9:3	6	14
4	Police XI	7	3	2	2	4:3	1	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tonota FC
Botswana Premier League
09.10.26	Tonota - Sua Flamingoes	1:0 ✺
03.10.26	Matebele - Tonota	1:3 ✺
16.09.26	Mochudi Centre Chiefs - Tonota	1:1 ✺
11.09.26	Tonota - BDF XI	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Tonota - TAFIC	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 WWTTW
- Botswana Police XI SC
Botswana Premier League
14.10.26	Gaborone United - Police XI	1:0 ✺
11.10.26	Police XI - Extension Gunners	0:0 ✺
19.09.26	Police XI - Orapa United	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	Matebele - Police XI	0:1 ✺
30.08.26	Police XI - Morupule Wanderers	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LTTWW

Tonota - Police XI

Match Info

Current Win Probability

Key Events of the Match

Preview

Standings

Form

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