Match Info

Gold Cup - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 29 June 2025, Sunday

Location: U.S. Bank Stadium (Minneapolis, MN)

Referee: Lopez W. (Gtm)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, StarTimes App
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Australia	ESPN, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	OneSoccer, TLN, TSN 5, VIVA
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN 2
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Mexico	VIX+, ViX Premium
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1
New-zealand	ESPN
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean, ESPN Norte
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV1
Saudi-arabia	Aloula
Singapore	HUB Sports 2
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America
Spain	GolStadium
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Ukraine	Maincast
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fubo Sports Network, Tubi TV, TUDN App, TUDN, Univision
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	VIX App


	USA		Costa Rica

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.55	3.8	6
				Watch
	1.58	3.87	7
				Watch
	1.55	3.8	5.8
	1.56	3.91	6.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.57)	3.85 ↓ (4.23)	6.35 ↑ (5.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

USA
60.6%

Draw
24.6%

Costa Rica
14.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.6%

22.5%

16.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.9%

21.5%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for USA have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Costa Rica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for USA than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Costa Rica than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.7%	29.4%	5.9%

USA - Costa Rica Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. USA will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Costa Rica will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for USA: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - USA (2.05) (votes: 6 - 85.7%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DC - USA (1.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): USA will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. USA (votes: 12 - 92.3%). Costa Rica (votes: 1 - 7.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Freese M. (G) New York City 16. Freeman A. Orlando City 3. Richards C. Crystal Palace 13. Ream T. Charlotte FC 18. Arfsten M. Columbus Crew 4. Adams T. Bournemouth 8. Berhalter S. Vancouver Whitecaps 14. de la Torre L. San Diego FC 10. Luna D. (C) Real Salt Lake 17. Tillman M. PSV 24. Agyemang P. Charlotte FC	1. Navas K. (G) Newells Old Boys 22. Mora C. Univ. Craiova 6. Gamboa A. Alajuelense 4. Vargas J. Millonarios 15. Calvo F. Hatayspor 16. Bran Flores A. J. Alajuelense 14. Galo O. Riga FC 10. Aguilera Zamora B. Rio Ave 20. Alcocer J. Westerlo 12. Martinez A. New York City 19. Vargas K. Hearts
Substitutes
11. Aaronson B. Leeds 21. Aaronson P. Utrecht 9. Downs D. 1. FC Koln 20. Harriel N. Philadelphia Union 6. McGlynn J. Houston Dynamo 22. McKenzie M. Toulouse 12. Robinson M. FC Cincinnati 7. Sullivan Q. Philadelphia Union 2. Tolkin J. Holstein Kiel 1. Turner M. (G) Crystal Palace 23. White B. Vancouver Whitecaps 5. Zimmerman W. Nashville SC	13. Brenes J. Saprissa 5. Faerron F. Herediano 18. Lezcano A. (G) San Carlos 26. Myrie K. Saprissa 25. Nunez C. Cartagines 7. Rojas A. New York Red Bulls 23. Sequeira P. (G) Casa Pia 2. van der Putten S. Alajuelense 24. Villalobos Alfaro G. Alajuelense 21. Zamora A. Aris
Coaches
Pochettino M.	Herrera M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Calvo F. (Pen),
35', Vargas J. 🟨,
37', Tillman M. (Pen),
38', Richards C. 🟨,
38', Vargas K. 🟨,
43', 1 - 1, Luna D. ⚽, Arfsten M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', 2 - 1, Arfsten M. ⚽, Tillman M. (A),
58', Aguilera Zamora B. ↓, Rojas A. ↑,
58', Vargas K. ↓, Brenes J. ↑,
68', Alcocer J. 🟨,
71', 2 - 2, Martinez A. ⚽, Mora C. (A),
74', Bran Flores A. J. ↓, Nunez C. ↑,
78', de la Torre L. ↓, Downs D. ↑,
83', Luna D. ↓, McGlynn J. ↑,
84', Arfsten M. ↓, Tolkin J. ↑,
88', Alcocer J. ↓, van der Putten S. ↑,
88', Mora C. ↓, Myrie K. ↑,
90', Agyemang P. ↓, White B. ↑,
Penalties (4 - 3)
1, Martinez A. (Pen),
1, Adams T. (Pen),
2, Vargas J. (Pen),
2, Tillman M. (Pen),
3, van der Putten S. (Pen),
3, Berhalter S. (Pen),
4, Brenes J. (Pen),
4, Freeman A. (Pen),
5, Calvo F. (Pen),
5, Tolkin J. (Pen),
6, Rojas A. (Pen),
6, Downs D. (Pen),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, USA won 4.

Recent performances by USA have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Costa Rica is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, USA is the clear favorite.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, USA won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 21:13. (average 1.5:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- USA
Gold Cup
22.06.25	USA - Haiti	2:1 ✺
19.06.25	Saudi Arabia - USA	0:1 ✺
15.06.25	USA - Trinidad & Tobago	5:0 ✺
Friendly
10.06.25	USA - Switzerland	0:4 ✺
07.06.25	USA - Turkey	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WWWLL
- Costa Rica
Gold Cup
22.06.25	Mexico - Costa Rica	0:0 ✺
18.06.25	Costa Rica - Dominican Republic	2:1 ✺
15.06.25	Costa Rica - Suriname	4:3 ✺
FIFA World Cup
10.06.25	Costa Rica - Trinidad & Tobago	2:1 ✺
07.06.25	Bahamas - Costa Rica	0:8 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Friendly
22.01.25	USA - Costa Rica	3:0
FIFA World Cup
30.03.22	Costa Rica - USA	2:0
13.10.21	USA - Costa Rica	2:1
Friendly
09.06.21	USA - Costa Rica	4:0
01.02.20	USA - Costa Rica	1:0
02.02.19	USA - Costa Rica	2:0
FIFA World Cup
01.09.17	USA - Costa Rica	0:2

USA - Costa Rica: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide