Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B - Round 5

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Comendador Henrique Amorim (Santa Maria de Lamas)


	União Lamas		Leça

	1	X	2
	3.3	3	2.13
	1.26	4.23	15.00	Watch
	3.11	3.15	2.17
	2.57	3.2	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↓ (2.57)	3.4 ↑ (3.2)	5.44 ↑ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

União Lamas
44.9%

Draw
33.9%

Leça
21.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.1%

28.2%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

27.3%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

União Lamas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in União Lamas's performance.

Leça has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Leça might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for União Lamas than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with União Lamas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leça than the current prediction. (+14.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Leça could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

União Lamas - Leça Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Seco H. ⚽,
23', 2 - 0, Neto R. ⚽,
44', 2 - 1, Santos D. M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 6 and 8).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Leça may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, União Lamas won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 1:3.5).

Including home match between the teams, União Lamas won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF União Lamas
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	União Lamas - Atlético da Malveira	2:1 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
14.09.25	Vila Real - União Lamas	1:3 ✺
24.08.25	União Lamas - Rebordosa	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Aparecida - União Lamas	3:1 ✺
10.08.25	União Lamas - Resende	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWTLT
- Leça FC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
14.09.25	Leça - Alpendorada	0:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
31.08.25	Rebordosa - Leça	2:0 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
24.08.25	Cinfães - Leça	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Leça - Florgrade	1:0 ✺
10.08.25	Vila Meã - Leça	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 TLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
16.03.25	Leça - União Lamas	4:2
30.11.24	União Lamas - Leça	0:3

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