Match Info

ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W50 Burgas, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 6 October 2026, Tuesday


	Alena Kovackova		Polona Hercog

	1	2
			Watch
	1.91	1.75
	1.79	1.91
	2.01	1.7	Watch
	1.88	1.76	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↑ (1.5)	1.78 ↓ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 20.50

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alena Kovackova
48.4%

Polona Hercog
51.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.3%

38.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.7%

42.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alena Kovackova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alena Kovackova's form might have worsened.

Polona Hercog has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Polona Hercog's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alena Kovackova than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alena Kovackova, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Polona Hercog than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Polona Hercog, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Alena Kovackova - Polona Hercog Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Kovackova is ranked WTA: 407., and Hercog is ranked WTA: 237..

Kovackova is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Hercog has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Kovackova could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Kovackova is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alena Kovackova
ITF Tournaments
27.09.26	Alisa Oktiabreva - Alena Kovackova	2:0 ✺
26.09.26	Vittoria Paganetti - Alena Kovackova	0:2 ✺
25.09.26	Alena Kovackova - Martina Colmegna	2:0 ✺
24.09.26	Alena Kovackova - Ilary Pistola	2:0 ✺
23.09.26	Alena Kovackova - Tilwith Di Girolami	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWWWW
- Polona Hercog
ITF Tournaments
02.10.26	Lisa Pigato - Polona Hercog	2:1 ✺
01.10.26	Naiktha Bains - Polona Hercog	1:2 ✺
30.09.26	Ayana Akli - Polona Hercog	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
21.09.26	Polona Hercog - Leyre Romero Gormaz	1:2 ✺
14.09.26	Polona Hercog - Julie Struplova	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWWLL

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