Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Madrid (Spain), clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 28 April 2024, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Madrid (Spain) 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	21:40	beIN Sports
Bosnia And Herzegovina	13:40	SportKlub
Brazil	08:40	ESPN 2
Croatia	13:40	SportKlub
Czech Republic	13:40	CANAL+ Sport 2
Denmark	13:40	TV2 Sport X
France	13:40	beIN Sports
Germany	13:40	Sky Sport Tennis
Poland	13:40	CANAL+ Sport 2
Romania	14:40	Digi Sport 2
Serbia	13:40	SportKlub
Slovenia	13:40	SportKlub
Ukraine	14:40	Setanta Sports


	Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova		Darya Kasatkina

	1	2
	1.91	1.91	Watch
	1.85	1.91
	1.88	1.92	Watch
	1.93	1.97
	1.93	1.97
	1.8	2
	1.82	1.99	Watch
	1.87	1.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.79)	1.96 ↓ (2.05)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
51.1%

Darya Kasatkina
48.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

53.5%

46.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2%

47.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Darya Kasatkina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Darya Kasatkina than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.7%	0%	73.3%

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - Darya Kasatkina Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Pavlyuchenkova will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Kasatkina will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kasatkina: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Pavlyuchenkova won 1.

Recent matches Pavlyuchenkova is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Kasatkina is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Pavlyuchenkova could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both players.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Pavlyuchenkova won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 5-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
WTA Madrid
26.04.24	Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - Daria Saville	2:0 ✺
WTA Rouen
18.04.24	Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - Arantxa Rus	1:2 ✺
16.04.24	Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - Alice Robbe	2:0 ✺
WTA Miami
24.03.24	Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - Ekaterina Alexandrova	1:2 ✺
22.03.24	Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - Shelby Rogers	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLWLW
- Darya Kasatkina
WTA Madrid
26.04.24	Cristina Bucsa - Darya Kasatkina	1:2 ✺
WTA Charleston
07.04.24	Darya Kasatkina - Danielle Collins	0:2 ✺
06.04.24	Jessica Pegula - Darya Kasatkina	1:2 ✺
05.04.24	Darya Kasatkina - Jaqueline Adina Cristian	2:1 ✺
04.04.24	Darya Kasatkina - Anhelina Kalinina	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Doha
12.02.24	Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - Darya Kasatkina	2:0
WTA Madrid
28.04.23	Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - Darya Kasatkina	0:2
WTA Melbourne Phillip Island Trophy
15.02.21	Darya Kasatkina - Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova	2:1
WTA Moscow
18.10.18	Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - Darya Kasatkina	0:2
17.10.17	Darya Kasatkina - Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova	2:0
23.10.15	Darya Kasatkina - Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova	1:2

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - Darya Kasatkina