Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Monastir 10 (Tunisia), hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 14 March 2025, Friday


	Aziz Ouakaa		Luca Castagnola

	1	2
	2.3	1.53
	2.35	1.55	Watch
	2.38	1.53
	2.33	1.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↑ (1.83)	1.54 ↓ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aziz Ouakaa
39.7%

Luca Castagnola
60.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

46.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aziz Ouakaa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aziz Ouakaa's form might have worsened.

Luca Castagnola has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Luca Castagnola's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aziz Ouakaa than the current prediction. (+13.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aziz Ouakaa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Castagnola than the current prediction. (-13.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Luca Castagnola, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Aziz Ouakaa - Luca Castagnola Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Ouakaa is ranked ATP: 676. Castagnola is ranked ATP: 717.

Ouakaa is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Castagnola is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Castagnola could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Castagnola will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aziz Ouakaa
ITF Tournaments
13.03.25	Aziz Ouakaa - Aaron Funk	2:1 ✺
12.03.25	Aziz Ouakaa - Sean Cuenin	2:1 ✺
08.03.25	Aziz Ouakaa - Luca Potenza	1:2 ✺
07.03.25	Aziz Ouakaa - Niklas Waldner	2:0 ✺
04.03.25	Aziz Ouakaa - Amir Omarkhanov	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 WWLWW
- Luca Castagnola
ITF Tournaments
13.03.25	Fabien Salle - Luca Castagnola	0:2 ✺
12.03.25	Giannicola Misasi - Luca Castagnola	0:2 ✺
07.03.25	Thomas Deschamps - Luca Castagnola	2:1 ✺
05.03.25	Luca Castagnola - Denis Klok	Klok D. retired ✺
27.02.25	Luca Castagnola - Amir Omarkhanov	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 WWL?L

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