Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Campinas (Brazil), clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 15 October 2024, Tuesday


	Camilo Ugo Carabelli		Gustavo Heide

	1	2
	2	1.73	Watch
	2.05	1.7
	2.07	1.68	Watch
	2.09	1.77
	2.05	1.72	Watch
			Watch
	2.19	1.63	Watch
	2.07	1.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.67)	1.7 ↓ (2.1)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
45.1%

Gustavo Heide
54.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.6%

44.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.2%

41.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Camilo Ugo Carabelli's form might have worsened.

Gustavo Heide has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gustavo Heide's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (+13.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Camilo Ugo Carabelli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gustavo Heide than the current prediction. (-13.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gustavo Heide, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	0%	9.1%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Gustavo Heide Predictions

Users Predictions: Camilo Ugo Carabelli will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Ugo Carabelli is ranked ATP: 112. Heide is ranked ATP: 188.

Ugo Carabelli in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Heide is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Heide could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both players are almost equal.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ATP Challenger
13.10.24	Jesper De Jong - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	1:2 ✺
12.10.24	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	2:0 ✺
11.10.24	Pedro Sakamoto - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	0:2 ✺
10.10.24	Daniel Vallejo - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	1:2 ✺
08.10.24	Renzo Olivo - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWWWW
- Gustavo Heide
ATP Challenger
10.10.24	Hugo Dellien - Gustavo Heide	2:0 ✺
09.10.24	Nicolas Kicker - Gustavo Heide	0:2 ✺
04.10.24	Federico Coria - Gustavo Heide	2:0 ✺
02.10.24	Enzo Couacaud - Gustavo Heide	0:2 ✺
01.10.24	Conner Huertas Del Pino - Gustavo Heide	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWLWW

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