Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Augsburg (Germany), clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 22 May 2024, Wednesday

Referee: Muhlberger A. (Ger)


	Daniel Michalski		August Holmgren

	1	2
	1.83	1.83	Watch
	1.75	1.95
	1.8	1.92	Watch
	1.86	1.98
	1.86	1.98
	1.83	1.83	Watch
	1.86	1.88	Watch
	1.03	10.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (2.03)	2.98 ↑ (1.72)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniel Michalski
63.3%

August Holmgren
36.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.8%

54.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47%

53%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniel Michalski has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Daniel Michalski's performance.

August Holmgren has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and August Holmgren might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Michalski than the current prediction. (-16.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Daniel Michalski that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for August Holmgren than the current prediction. (+16.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that August Holmgren could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.6%	0%	21.4%

Daniel Michalski - August Holmgren Predictions

Users Predictions: Daniel Michalski will win (11 of 14 users predict this - 78.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 57.08% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Recent matches Michalski is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Holmgren is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both players are almost equal.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniel Michalski
ATP Challenger
12.05.24	Kyle Edmund - Daniel Michalski	2:0 ✺
06.05.24	Jakub Paul - Daniel Michalski	2:0 ✺
05.05.24	Norbert Gombos - Daniel Michalski	1:2 ✺
22.04.24	Daniel Michalski - David Pichler	0:2 ✺
21.04.24	Daniel Michalski - Branko Djuric	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLWLW
- August Holmgren
ATP Challenger
12.05.24	Frederico Ferreira Silva - August Holmgren	2:1 ✺
14.04.24	August Holmgren - Duck Hee Lee	0:2 ✺
06.04.24	August Holmgren - Yuki Mochizuki	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
21.03.24	August Holmgren - Karue Sell	0:2 ✺
20.03.24	August Holmgren - Cash Hanzlik	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLLW

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